GOPers Still Lead 2008 Horserace

GOPers Still Lead 2008 Horserace


McCain and Giuliani beat Hillary and Obama.

Time has the numbers…

Republicans are so morose in general, and conservatives so unhappy with their current field of candidates, that the assumption of a Democratic advantage has become bi-partisan. And with the public so soured on the Republican in the White House, and so many other trends working against them, including an up-tick in the percentage of Americans identifying themselves as Democrats , it’s hard to find any good news for Republicans these days.

So why, in poll after poll, including the new TIME poll, does that advantage seem to disappear whenever voters are asked to pick a president in hypothetical head-to-head match-ups among front-runners with solid name recognition. In our poll, Hillary Clinton loses to John McCain, 42-48%, and to Rudy Giuliani 41-50%. Even though Clinton maintains a 7% edge over Obama among Democratic respondents, Obama fares better in the general election match-ups. It’s so close that it’s a statistical dead-heat, but Obama still loses: 43-45% to McCain, 44-45% to Giuliani.

Anybody think it’s the WoT? What issue it pushing the Repubs ahead of the Dems?

  • Dennis Sanders

    I wonder if it’s that Americans want divided government. I think that after six years of one party rule on both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue (that was a disaster), maybe people want to have a longer time with divided government.

  • probligo

    The quality of the candidates?

    Blind faith?

  • Alan Stewart Carl

    Maybe it’s that, although people are fed-up with Iraq, they’re still kinda worried that a Dem president would be too weak to handle the rest of the WoT?

    Or maybe it’s that Clinton is polarizing and Obama is still too unknown so the celebrity GOPers are a few steps ahead.

  • Don

    Interesting thing is Ezra Klein has a link to a Rasmussen poll that shows Edwards whomping McCain by 9 points.

    It’s too early to tell. If we are in tough times Hillary has more of a tough vibe than Obama so she might fare better, if everyone is sick of partisan wrangling and wants to sing Kumbaya then Obama’d probably do better. About November when the primaries are closing in it’ll be easier to get a reliable feed on the national mood and where the primary race is going.

  • sleipner

    Imagine that…those who can afford to pay anywhere near the limit for donations are rich or corporations…Republicans give lots of money to rich people and corporations…Republicans get huge amounts of campaign contributions…surprise surprise.