From the Politico daily newsletter:
Fractured results in the initial primaries and caucuses disrupt Mitt Romney’s plan to rack up a series of convincing wins ahead of the big states where Giuliani expects to run well. It’s harder to build a head of steam when you’re fighting gnats, and any success the also-rans achieve will dilute Rudy weakness in the smaller, earlier states.
Make sense. The field is incredibly crowded, and with Huck and Ron Paul coming on strong, you’re definitely looking at a fractured vote. If Romney has any chance of winning solidly in any of these early states, people are going to have to drop out. And that looks increasingly unlikely with such an unpredictable electorate.
Could the same be true for Hillary, who’s polling way ahead in a lot of primary states? Or is it simply a three way race, as it was in 2004 with Kerry, Dean and Edwards?
We shall see…