Huck, Obama Lead In Iowa

Huck, Obama Lead In Iowa


Inevitability is dead.

Marc Ambinder has the numbers:

Obama: 28 Huckabee: 29
Clinton: 25 Romney: 24
Edwards: 23 Giuliani: 13

More from The Corner:

The new poll from the Des Moines Register shows some dramatic changes in the Republican race in Iowa. The headline is that Mike Huckabee, who was 17 points behind Mitt Romney in the paper’s October poll, now leads Romney by five points. The second headline is that Fred Thompson, who was in second place (behind Romney) in October, is now in fourth place, with half the level of support he had last month. The third headline is that Ron Paul has moved up to a level just behind Thompson and equal with John McCain.

Biggest news about all this…

Huckabee has spent a total of $327,000 in Iowa. Romney has spent $7 million.

And yes, Ron Paul keeps moving up too, but it doesn’t look like it’ll be enough. He’s only at 7%, which is still 5th place.

Here’s the thing I’m wondering. Will Hillary and Romney now scramble to make Iowa seem unimportant? Maybe not unimportant, but now that they’re leading the polls, Hillary and Romney can manage expectations.

  • Paul

    7% is perfect, actually. As for the polls, I think they’re flawed, and I won’t recite the usual arguments for why; but I also don’t think Ron Paul is an invisible top tier candidate either, so I think a safe compromise is to assume that the margin of error should be included, thus making Ron at 11-12% in reality. Since Giuliani’s pretty much abandoned Iowa, this makes Ron Paul very viable at making a third place in the caucus, and this is all that Ron Paul really needs.

  • Keith

    Ron Paul will take 20 – 25 percent of the vote in Iowa. I would be embarrassed for Iowans if it were anything less. I happen to have worked in Iowa for a while in 1998 and people I befriended seemed very intelligent. I think they will realize that Huckabee is using religion to obscure his socialist agenda. I don’t think Iowans want a welfare-warfare state more than anyone else in the country does.