They’re all happening this weekend. Obama has visited all of these primary or caucus locales. Hillary has visited two. There are 161 delegates at stake.
What will happen? Here are some guesses…
Washington primary, 78 delegates:
Lay of the land: Obama is thought to have an advantage in the caucuses, which are dominated by party activists, especially in liberal Seattle. However, Washington has a strong history of electing women.
Both senators from the state are women and have endorsed Clinton. Democratic Gov. Christine Gregoire has not yet made her pick but said she would before the caucuses. (Justin’s note: Gregoire has since endorsed Obama)
Louisiana primary, 56 delegates:
Lay of the land: A heavy turnout by black voters would benefit Obama. The state is close to one-third black and has only a small population of Hispanics, a group that has favored Clinton.
Nebraska caucuses, 24 delegates:
Lay of the land: The Clinton campaign claimed a strong grass-roots organization. Obama has been endorsed by state party leaders and lawmakers as well as by Sen. Ben Nelson, the only Democratic member of the state’s congressional delegation.
Maine caucuses, 24 delegates:
Lay of the land: Gov. John Baldacci is backing Clinton, and led several dozen state lawmakers in a rally for her Thursday. Obama swept up $400,000 in a visit to Portland in September, in one demonstration of his drawing power in the state, said Maine House Speaker Glenn Cummings, who backs him.
Virgin Islands caucuses, 3 delegates:
Lay of the land: In November, Obama attracted more than 100 supporters to a one-hour reception in St. Thomas that cost up to $2,300 to attend.
Conclusion: most think Obama has the advantage this weekend since Hillary hasn’t been too aggressive in these states.
I guess we’ll see.