About That ARG Wisconsin Poll…

About That ARG Wisconsin Poll…


It shows Clinton leading, but what TPM missed is that this isn’t showing anything new for this particular poll. In fact, this poll is actually good news for Barack because it shows that he gained some ground from the last time they conducted one back on the 6th through the 7th.

At that time, Hillary had 50% to Obama’s 41%. Now the gap is 49% to 43%. Not a big deal, but it could show that while this ARG poll may not predict the final outcome of the contest, it is showing the gap getting smaller and that could actually be seen as Obama gaining a wider lead if you consider the trends of other polls.

More as it develops…

  • http://thegrandpanjandrum.wordpress.com The Grand Panjandrum

    The fact that its an ARG poll means that its about as reliable as a Zogby poll. The Pollster.com poll of polls shows a slight lead for Obama. I’ll stick with Pollster because the Wisconsin vote could go either way.

  • TheMiddle

    Justin, while I appreciate your unflagging support for the Junior Senator from Illinois, I’m deeply concerned that you’re diluting your own journalistic integrity for the benefit of one candidate. While it is important to point out the near constant lies, hypocrisies, and blunders of the Clinton campaign, some semblance of balance wouldn’t hurt your credibility. Which in my opinion at least has been on a steady decline as your biases have shown. I was first attracted to Donklephant as a true moderate website, a place where I could find balanced thought and opinion from all sides. While I don’t want to say that as a journalist you have no right to support a certain candidate, to do so without any consideration for the greater breadth of your audience is disappointing.

    We ought to be hearing about more than just how Hillary spins everything in outrageous ways. We know that. But despite my support for Senator Obama, he isn’t the saint he’s being made out to be. He does have legitimate weaknesses, which ought to be pointed out so that people receive a more balanced dose of news.

  • http://www.donklephant.com Justin Gardner


    I’m not a journalist and this isn’t a news site. It’s a blog where I offer a forum for both sides to come and discuss. I happen to be a moderate Dem, which means that I’m more in line with liberal ideology, but I’m open to ideas from conservatives, libertarians, greens, etc. So first off I just want to make sure you know where I’m coming from and what makes this site somewhat unique in the blogosphere.

    I agree that my support may seem unflinching, but I find that these days I’m reading a lot of negative stories and attacks from the Hillary camp and Hillary supporters that just aren’t grounded in fact. And so I try and correct them or offer my opinion why I think their spin is dishonest at best. And do know, I always try my best to find balance, but on some issues it’s not about balance, it’s about illuminating the truth or expressing opinions.

    And so while I completely appreciate your sentiments, I’m going to continue to keep doing what I’m doing. If Obama is wrong, I’ll call him on it. But so far he has run an incredibly tight, controlled, disciplined campaign and the criticisms have been few and far between.

    I am, however, looking into the campaign finance pledge he signed last year and will be offering my opinion on that soon. I’m trying to figure out what McCain has done, because he offered himself a loan as opposed to take public financing. So it appears as if he’s said he’ll do it, but then decided not to take the money. Again, I’m not exactly sure what all this means, and until I do I don’t feel comfortable writing about it.

  • TheMiddle

    1) Thank you for the response. 2) Thank you for doing it respectfully, sadly it simply isn’t a common occurrence.

    As for the subject matter: As a former blogger myself, I too have been dragged into the “journalist” debate. While no, technically you aren’t a journalist, people who come to your site looking for authoritative information about politics will still treat you in such a manner. Something I’m sure you’ve seen in the responses to a number of your posts. But the very fact that people come to you and this site as a respected source of analysis, you are, whether you like it or not, a de facto journalist, and your readership will notice any blatant biases.

    I think what drove me to make these comments in the first place was this post. While you did a fine job of making available the various polls that have been run covering the Wisconsin race, I feel your attempts to justify the ARG poll was a reach. With Obama leading in so many others, and with only a slight change, one which was almost certainly within the past polls margin of error, its a nearly pointless argument. Having made the information available for public consumption ought to have been enough.

    Furthermore, I’m willing to venture a guess that Hillary probably closed the gap within at least one of those polls that Obama is leading. I could be wrong about that though – and that needs to be said. But if she did, it would certainly seem odd that Obama gets mentioned for closing the ga and she doesn’t.

    Or I could be wildly incorrect in my assumption. But I was under the impression that he’d be further ahead in Wisconsin than he is.

    Beyond that, I’d like to thank you for your contributions to the blogosphere. I know it isn’t easy work and you tend to have a lot more people ripping into than thanking you. I guess I’ve done a bit of both, but I mean only the best.