Hillary Making Late Surge In Texas?

Hillary Making Late Surge In Texas?


Could mw be right? Could Andrew Sullivan’s worst nightmares come true?

Two polls show Hillary closing the gap and even leading in Texas.

First, Public Policy Polling (pdf) shows Hill with 50% to Obama’s 44%.

Then, Rasumuseen shows a dead heat:

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey, conducted Sunday, finds Barack Obama with a statistically insignificant one-point lead over Hillary Clinton. It’s Obama 48% Clinton 47%. Five percent (5%) are undecided and 6% say they could still change their mind.

These results show the race has gotten a bit closer in the past few days. Last week, Obama enjoyed a four-point lead and the Illinois Senator had been gaining ground steadily for two weeks. Now, it appears that Clinton has at least temporarily halted Obama’s momentum. It remains to be seen whether she car reverse it.

Things are getting interesting!

I added an “I Told You So” tag to this post, just in case mw’s predictions prove to be right. And if Hillary wins, look for his post with the title, “Nana-Nana Boo Boo.” It’s sure to be filled with humility and deference.

Commenter “kritter” suggests a “Boy Was I Wrong” tag. This too is for mw. 😀

  • http://westanddivided.blogspot.com/ mw

    Could mw be right? – jg

    Hard to believe.

    But, just in case – I think it is time for you to set up that “I told you so.” tag I requested. I may need it for a post on Wednesday.

  • kritter

    What makes the most analytic sense is to view each successive poll result as one data point, and then project based on the trend. Texas has trended strongly Obama, and most of the recent ones show it either close or with Obama ahead. Few if any recent ones show Clinton ahead. That suggests Obama will take Texas.

    Ohio has consistently shown Obama closing but still trailing, which suggests Hillary could hang on.

    Since it’s the day before, why not make both an “I told you so” tag, and a “boy was I wrong” tag, and then use whichever one the outcome warrants. :-)

  • http://www.iconicmidwest.blogspot.com Rich Horton

    Camp Clinton was probably heartened that Zogby shows Obama in the lead. That has proven to be a pretty firm indicator of a Clinton victory in the past.

  • http://westanddivided.blogspot.com/ mw

    I guess I better have two posts ready.

    Kritter – just out of curiosity – do you recall how the polls were trending over the week heading into New Hampshire? It seems to have slipped my mind.

  • kritter


    Of course the polls could be wrong. NH notwithstanding, they have been right way more often than wrong ever since NH. The longer and better documented the trend, the more likely it is to be right. That’s why I think the consistent message that can be gleaned from the Texas and Ohio polls is that Obama has gained a small but real edge in Texas but Hillary has been hanging on in Ohio,

    Late sketchy trends are the ones that tend to be most suspect. if anything, that calls into question the most recent polls that show Clinton doing a shade better than she had been doing in the week or two before that.

    Also, don’t forget how short the time was between Iowa and NH. Would Clinton have hung on if NH had been another week later?

  • http://westanddivided.blogspot.com/ mw

    ahem – “I Told You So.”

    Oh wait.. Did I actually post this? Sorry. My bad. I was just practicing.