Poll: Obama Up By Nearly 20 In North Carolina

Poll: Obama Up By Nearly 20 In North Carolina


Public Policy Polling has the numbers (pdf file)

After a week in which both candidates spent a lot of time in North Carolina Barack Obama has retained a large lead in the state, according to the newest survey from Public Policy Polling.

Obama leads Clinton 54-36. His lead is particularly strong among likely voters who do not have a history of voting in primaries. With that group he has a 60-32 advantage.

“Throughout the country Barack Obama has had a lot of success in generating support from folks who aren’t always a part of the political process,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “His campaign appears to be creating that same sort of excitement in North Carolina, and it’s showing in the polls.”

Now he has declined a couple points since last week when he lead by 20, but it’s still an overwhelming lead and it seems to be holding. There’s lots of time for Hillary to catch up, but she can’t like these numbers.

What’s more, when you look at the issues, Obama is dominating the issues that matter most to voters…including Hillary’s supposed power alley: health care.

O/H %s
Education – 72/17
War in Iraq – 58/35
Economy and Jobs – 55/38
Health Care – 57/35

Here’s where Hillary leads:
Taxes – 42/45
Moral or Family Values – 52/29
Immigration – 48/32

More as it develops…

  • http://spirituallibertarian.blogspot.com/2007/09/libertarian-love-revolution.html Christian Prophet

    Clinton is just not hitting Obama where it would hurt. See:

    She needs to realize what McCain would hit Obama on, and beat McCain to the punch.

  • http://www.iconicmidwest.blogspot.com Rich Horton

    PP still wont give out the breakdown of the sample by race. Clinton leads Obma by 17%(!) among whites, but is down 18 in total??? NC is 70% white and only 22% black. I’m not sure the fact it is a Democratic primary is gonna skew it that much.

    I still think these are garbage polls.

  • http://www.donklephant.com Justin Gardner


    Respectfully, I don’t think you know how polling and weighting works. Was this poll more right when it showed Obama only had a 2 point lead three weeks ago? You also flat out said the recent WSJ poll was wrong without knowing how it worked too.

    In other words, please come to the table with more than your opinion about how valid these polls are, okay?

  • http://www.iconicmidwest.blogspot.com Rich Horton

    Justin, you owe me an apology. You obviously do not know what a statistically valid random sample is, or what standard operating procedure is in providing details of your sample. The PP does not provide enough information to draw ANY valid conclusions about the quality of its “findings”. If you say it does you are either A) lying or B) dont know enough about polling to realize when something is wrong. The truth is this poll tells you what you WANT to believe so it becomes gospel. Thats irrational.

    Here is an example of how you are SUPPOSED to report sample data. Notice a difference from the PP summary? SPR givens you the EXACT samples used so that anyone can see HOW they weighted things to see if it seems plausible. (SPR weighted their sample of 460 by race, 257 White, 170 Black, 22 Hispanic, 11 “Other”.) Is their weighting accurate? I’m not sure. I certainly cant compare it to PP who refuse to tell us how they weighted at all.

    And the weights MATTER. Zogby got California wrong by nearly 25 percentage points because he weighted his polls incorrectly. (Which *I* correctly called before the primary.)

  • http://www.donklephant.com Justin Gardner

    Rich, how about this buddy…since you think it’s false, I suggest you call Dean Debnam at 888-621-6988 and take this up with him. He’d be happy to answer any question you have since he works for PPP. I report nearly all the polls I can find to highlight trends. Nothing more. So this whole “gospel” meme you’re trying to lay on me is simply not supported by the facts.

    And yes, weights matter. Did I ever say anything to the contrary? Again, you called the WSJ poll “wrong” because you either ignored or didn’t notice that they reweighted the sample to make sure it was accurate. So the only person in this conversation who has said anything remotely resembling “gospel” is you.