The Electoral Vote Watchers Predicting Big Obama Win

The Electoral Vote Watchers Predicting Big Obama Win


I just did a few posts about the recent Quinnipiac polls for Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, and that got me thinking about the overall electoral college outlook. After all, whoever gets to 270 first is what really matters.

So here’s what Pollster is showing…an easy Obama win…

Same story from

So the question now is how can McCain change these maps? What’s his game plan? Win Michigan and Pennsylvania? Take New Mexico back? And look at all of those states that are in play this time around that weren’t last time.

This is the problem with McCain’s campaign. He has yet to articulate a clear strategy to win in November. Meanwhile, Obama has a massive number of paid campaign field workers on the ground in each of the swing states and they’re going to fight for every single one of them. It’s 2004, only Bush didn’t have the type of social networking prowess that Obama’s team has.

In the end, the media may want to paint this race as close, but the exact opposite seems to be shaping up less than 100 days until we all go cast our ballots.

More as it develops…

  • mdgeorge

    another interesting electoral vote projection site is, he’s projecting 307 to 231 based on his simulations.

  • mike mcEachran

    what’s that interactive site where you can change the electoral map ?

  • Rich Hudson

    McCain’s strategy is to use every Rovian dirty trick in the book while avoiding the actual issues. But he’s so unpopular that not even Diebold may be able to win this for him. Then again, as Stephen Colbert says, this election isn’t over until the Supreme Court says it is.

  • kritter

    100 days is an eternity. Wasn’t Dukakis way ahead prior to the conventions? How’d THAT work out?

    I have trouble taking seriously any projection that suggests Obama is going to carry Montana.Look at the RCP map which gives McCain 163 in solids. Add FL and NC, where he has been consistently ahead, and he’s up to 205. From there, here are the states he needs in order to win divided into 2 categories:

    1st, the ones most polls have consistently suggested he’s ahead but by small margins: MO, VA, IN, +35 = 240

    and 2nd, the real crapshoot states that have gone back and forth but mostly show margins either way in the low single digits: OH, CO, NM, NH, NV. 43 electoral votes.

    Folks have been suggesting MI is a crapshoot, but I am not counting it as such because I expect huge Detroit turnout for Obama, and I expect that such ablue-collar high-union state goes democratic in a down economy. If Obama loses MI, he’ll be in trouble.

    The other side of that, for McCain, is that based on current numbers, he faces a near impossible task if he can’t carry OH. If he carries OH, then he only needs a good split in the crapshoot states. If he loses OH, he needs to carry all the crapshoot states AND find another W somewhere else.

    Though i tend to assume that the GOp carries FL becuase they almost always do even though it’s always close, I am surprised that McCain is not farther ahead down there. There’s really no way McCain gets to 270 w/o FL , because if FL turns blue, then that’s likely to be as part of larger trend where most of the moderate states have swung blue. I attribute McCain’s lack of FL strength to unenthusiastic evangelicals. But my best guess is that at the end of the race, faced with the prospect of an unabashedly socially liberal Obama, presidency, they crab on down to the polls and choke out a vote for McCain.

    Unless the media has called it for Obama by Columbus Day. Which they are unlikely to do because it’s bad for ratings.

  • dmf

    Wasn’t Dukakis way ahead prior to the conventions? How’d THAT work out?

    well. yeah. but… dukakis had a “tank moment.” and honestly i don’t think there’s any way obama can look like an ass. have you seen that pic of him and patraeus in the chopper? seriously, it has “president badass” written all over it…

  • Avinash_Tyagi lets you change the map

  • mike mcEachran

    “President Badass”. that’s great. And don’t forget Willy Horton, that’s really what did in Dukakis. 1. Obama won’t look foolish, and 2. He won’t let the GOP attack machine go unchecked like Dukakis and Kerry did.. This team has learned that lesson.

  • susan

    The real issue is not how well Obama or McCain might do in the closely divided battleground states, but that we shouldn’t have battleground states and spectator states in the first place. Every vote in every state should be politically relevant in a presidential election. And, every vote should be equal. We should have a national popular vote for President in which the White House goes to the candidate who gets the most popular votes in all 50 states.

    The National Popular Vote bill would guarantee the Presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC). The bill would take effect only when enacted, in identical form, by states possessing a majority of the electoral vote — that is, enough electoral votes to elect a President (270 of 538). When the bill comes into effect, all the electoral votes from those states would be awarded to the presidential candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC).

    Because of state-by-state enacted rules for winner-take-all awarding of their electoral votes, recent candidates with limited funds have concentrated their attention on a handful of closely divided “battleground” states. Two-thirds of the visits and money were focused in just six states; 88% on 9 states, and 99% of the money went to just 16 states. Two-thirds of the states and people have been merely spectators to the presidential election.

    Another shortcoming of the current system is that a candidate can win the Presidency without winning the most popular votes nationwide.

    The National Popular Vote bill has been approved by 20 legislative chambers (one house in Colorado, Arkansas, Maine, Massachusetts, North Carolina, and Washington, and two houses in Maryland, Illinois, Hawaii, California, New Jersey, Rhode Island, and Vermont). It has been enacted into law in Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, and Maryland. These states have 50 (19%) of the 270 electoral votes needed to bring this legislation into effect.


  • mike mcEachran

    Susan, this is certainly the time to get a bill like this pushed through. After living through 8 years of one of the worst presidents of all time and the 2000 popular vote loser, people might be ready to listen.

  • Aaron

    DMF, do you have a link to that picture? I can’t seem to find it. Thanks.

  • dmf

    wow. yeah it’s pretty hard to dig up now.
    found it though. here it is.

  • XB Cold Fingers

    In 1936 Franklin D. Roosevelt won earned 27 Million Votes to Landon’s 16 Million, and every state except Maine and Vermont.

    As Roosevelt put it, “the nation looked to the government and the government looked away.” The Republican vision, FDR said, is “that government is best which is most indifferent.” Just as he described the Republicans of the 1920’s – those who kicked Teddy Roosevelt out of the GOP, he describes the Republicans of the 1980’s, the 1990’s, and today. Not all, just the ones at the top of the party; both stalwarts and mavericks.