Public Policy Polling: McCain Leads By 10 In Missouri

Public Policy Polling: McCain Leads By 10 In Missouri


McCain – 50%
Obama – 40%

That’s a jump of 7 points since last month. And as anybody who follows polls knows, if you hit the 50% mark or drop below 40%, that’s a big deal.

The details…

The key to McCain’s rise is nearly doubling his lead among white voters. He now has a 56-35 advantage with them, up from 50-39 in July. Obama is still dominating among black voters but it’s nearly impossible for him to win in Missouri without keeping his deficit with whites in single digits.

As he is in many states McCain is doing a better job of keeping voters in his party with him than Obama is. He is up 87-9 among Republicans while Obama has a smaller 78-15 lead with Democrats.

As I’ve reported earlier, Obama is setting up a big time ground game in Missouri, but maybe he should give up and focus on states with closer contests like Colorado and Nevada?

More as it develops…

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  • kranky kritter

    Taken as a whole, the polls over the last month have shown a small to medium but nevertheless significant and demonstrable trend towards McCain. And that can’t be dismissed when looking at the Missouri data.

    And when you look at the 4 available Missouri polls cited by Real Clear Politics, you DO see that trend. And you ALSO see 4 polls taken by different firms (which means using different models) that are, well, all over the map.

    Now I don’t think Missouri is the likeliest of the usually-red states for him to try and capture. But any thoughts of throwing in the towel would be based on the fact that ONE of the 4 available polls shows a solid McCain lead. That’s premature.

    And given the fundraising numbers, it certainly does not appear that Team Obama is lacking in resources. So at this juncture, he appears to have the luxury of not being forced to make difficult decisions about marshalling limited resources. He can contest Missouri without worrying that it will substantially effect efforts in Colorado, Nevada, and Virginia.

    Besides, he’s going to get a substantial post-convention bump. I’ll be very surprised if this bump is not among the largest post-convention bumps documented. The big speech is being crafted, and the sound bites orchestrated, and the fervor anticipated.

    The GOP faces a gargantuan task in lowering the expectations of their faithful by plumping the inevitability of the celebrity rockstar storyline, and then furiously spinning it away afterwards. They are going to say that it doesn’t matter and that it doesn’t change anything if you have doubts about the guy. But on a visceral level, folks WILL feel that they do not want to be on the wrong side of history.

    That means that the celebrity halo does have substantial power, whether one likes it or not. Look for a furious negative attack on Obama timed for optimum halo dimming, one which includes new content if possible.

  • Bob

    Reminds me of the Far Side cartoon where the giant cockroach lying in an alley is talking to a bum saying: “I had it all: great job, great car, money, success, beautiful wife. Then one day someone shouted, ‘Hey! He’s just a big cockroach!'”.

    NObama ’08

  • Jim S

    That cartoon does remind me of McCain. Interesting, no?

  • Jim S

    Oh, and Justin, did you know that the Obama campaign is opening an office in Lee’s Summit today?

  • Jim S

    In the Veepstakes when they mention Sebelius I wonder if they ever consider that she might influence moderates in all the Missouri media markets that see lots of news from the Kansas side of the border?