Rasmussen: Obama Leads By 1, Tied

Rasmussen: Obama Leads By 1, Tied


With leaners
Obama – 48%
McCain – 47%

Without leaners
Obama – 46%
McCain – 46%

Is the bounce over? The numbers would suggest they are as McCain drops a point in the “with leaners” numbers.

But what about that all important female vote?

Rasmussen Reports polling has consistently shown a similar result, but it is important to note that there is nothing unusual about this finding. Four years ago, President Bush managed to defeat Senator John Kerry 55% to 44% among white women. Today’s tracking poll data shows McCain leading 51% to 44% among this group.

Among all women, Obama leads by eight. Among men, McCain leads by eight.

As stated yesterday, if McCain can maintain this tie it will be a great conclusion for him from the convention. But if he drops to 3 points behind, like he was before both conventions, the RNC basically did very little for him when it comes to the national popular vote. But the same is true for Obama.

The 5 day w/leaners:
09/10/2008: McCain – 47%, Obama – 48%
09/09/2008: McCain – 48%, Obama – 48%
09/08/2008: McCain – 48%, Obama – 47%
09/07/2008: McCain – 48%, Obama – 48%
09/06/2008: McCain – 46%, Obama – 49%

The 5 day w/o leaners:
09/10/2008: McCain – 46%, Obama – 46%
09/09/2008: McCain – 46%, Obama – 46%
09/08/2008: McCain – 47%, Obama – 46%
09/07/2008: McCain – 46%, Obama – 46%
09/06/2008: McCain – 45%, Obama – 46%

More tomorrow…

  • Avinash_Tyagi

    As i’ve been saying McCain is done, tommorow the Sunday polling cycles out and is replaced by todays’ McCain will probably fall even further, in a week, it should be back to what it was before the conventions at the very least, it could even be Obama at a new higher level

  • http://www.stuperb.com Stuperb

    Avanish, I wouldn’t go that far. I’m one of the seeming majority of Democrats who underestimated the Palin impact, and I think she could still pose a threat.

    That said, I’m wondering whether she’s a flash in the pan and hopeful that people will start asking themselves what it is that McCain plans to do and how he’s a force for change.

  • Avinash_Tyagi

    We’ll know in a week, today’s trackers are still showing the effect of the convention, however by the end of this week early next week that effect will be gone, in fact once sunday is cycled out I expect McCain’s numbers to fall big

  • http://www.stuperb.com Stuperb

    Me too, but I wouldn’t go so far as to say “McCain is done”. It’s going to be very, very tight all the way through election day, I’d imagine.

  • http://www.NationalPopularVote.com susan

    To make every vote in every state politically relevant and equal in presidential elections, support the National Popular Vote bill.

    The National Popular Vote bill would guarantee the Presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC). The bill would take effect only when enacted by states possessing a majority of the electoral votes (270 of 538). When the bill comes into effect, all the electoral votes from those states would be awarded to the presidential candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC).

    The National Popular Vote bill has been approved by 21 legislative chambers (one house in CO, AR, ME, NC, and WA, and two houses in MD, IL, HI, CA, MA, NJ, RI, and VT). It has been enacted into law in Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, and Maryland. These states have 50 (19%) of the 270 electoral votes needed to bring this legislation into effect.

    see http://www.NationalPopularVote.com