This poll seems like a pretty big deal, because if as many voters come to the polls as is expected, Obama wins big.
- According to the survey, new and lapsed voters (those who didn’t vote in 2004) back Obama over McCain by a 2-to-1 margin, 61%-30%.
- If you take the Bush (62 million) and Kerry (59 million) vote totals from 2004, assume turnout increases by 20 million additional voters (about what it did in 2004), and assume Obama wins these additional voters 2-to-1, then Obama would best McCain nationally by more than three million voters, 72.4 million to 68.7 million.
- But if turnout increases by just 10 million, then the numbers become Obama 65.7 million, McCain 65.3 million — a virtual tie.
So, a new generation of voter HEAVILY favors Obama. While this isn’t necessarily surprising, one must note that these Gen Yers are very different than their Gen Xer counterparts. Ask any advertising professional and they’ll tell you that the Gen Y consumer actually thinks they can make a difference, whereas the Gen X crowd is much more apathetic. So it only makes sense that not only do they favor a candidate that offers “Hope” and “Change” as their core message, but also that Obama can count on more of them coming out to vote.
Obviously we don’t what’ll happen come election time, but between this news, the new electoral projections and word that polling outfits may not be capturing the voting preferences of cell phone users effectively, overall voter preference is trending towards Obama in a big way.