Drudge Pushing McCain Comeback Meme

Drudge Pushing McCain Comeback Meme


First, there’s the obligatory headline asking the question that Drudge wishes was a reality…

Then, on the far right hand side you see the familiar “DEVELOPING” line…

So, let me take these one by one…

The Gallup poll has narrowed, but that’s only because Obama got a bump after the debate that pushed the spread to something unsustainable. Now he’s back down to his pre-debate level, and that’s still 50%. What’s more, for McCain to go from 41% to 43% is hardly a “comeback” or even the start of one. Sure, it’s the right direction, but come on…

Turning to Zogby’s numbers, well, you can simply ignore them since their polling has been absolutely awful this year. Better luck in 2012 John.

That brings us to Rasmussen, and one would think that a 5% spread would be good news for McCain. Well, not really.

Here’s a snapshot of their polling for the last 20 days…

Note that on Oct 9th and 10th the spread was +5 as well.

Finally, I’d like to point to a comparison study Pollster did today about which of these dailies is most reliable.

The red dot is where the average of a poll falls in relation to the average of all the polls. The closer to the middle, the better. Note that Rasmussen is pretty much dead on, with Hotline and Gallup being the next two most accurate.

Also, that thin blue line that bisects the red dot shows the volatility of a poll’s numbers, so if a poll jumps suddenly from a 5 point spread to a 9 point spread that’s usually odd behavior. And you’ll note that while Rasmussen’s is very small and shows less volatility from day to day, Zogby’s is massive. No surprise there..

Long story short, don’t believe the Drudge spin on this one. Because the numbers prove that Obama’s lead remains steady and as anybody who follows politics will tell you, a candidate polling at 50% or better this late in the race is almost a shoo-in to win.