What to say to this?
I honestly have a hard time believing that he’s ahead by 14%, but Pew is one of the few polling organizations that have adjusted for cell phone only users. Also, when it comes to “likely” voters he’s ahead by 14% again, 53% to 39%.
So what’s the deal? Why are so many people jumping ship from the Republican?
One word: confidence.
Obamaâ€™s strong showing in the current poll reflects greater confidence in the Democratic candidate personally. More voters see him as â€œwell-qualifiedâ€ and â€œdown-to-earthâ€ than did so a month ago. Obama also is inspiring more confidence on several key issues, including Iraq and terrorism, than he did before the debates. Most important, Obama now leads McCain as the candidate best able to improve economic conditions by a wider margin (53% to 32%).
Obamaâ€™s gains notwithstanding, a widespread loss of confidence in McCain appears to be the most significant factor in the race at this point. Many more voters express doubts about McCainâ€™s judgment than about Obamaâ€™s: 41% see McCain as â€œhaving poor judgment,â€ while just 29% say that this trait describes Obama.
This is what Obama’s campaign has been all about since the very beginning. Change vs. More Of The Same and Judgement vs. Experience. He’s winning both arguments and the numbers reflect exactly that.
More as it develops…