Mason/Dixon: Race Tight In Pennsylvania, Minnesota, Arizona

Mason/Dixon: Race Tight In Pennsylvania, Minnesota, Arizona


A bit of a surprise today, especially with the Pennsylvania and Minnesota numbers. Because I think this is one of the first polls I’ve seen that suggests those races are even close.

Pennsylvania: Obama +4
Obama: 47%
McCain: 43%

Minnesota: Obama + 8
Obama: 48%
McCain: 40%

Arizona: McCain +4
McCain: 48%
Obama: 44%

Frankly, I don’t buy the PA or MN numbers since they are the first to show a really tight race. Especially when you have roughly 10% undecideds in your sample at this point.

Still, Mason/Dixon is well respected, which is why I chose to share it all with you.

Prediction: Obama will take Pennsylvania and Minnesota. McCain will take Arizona.

You heard it here first! :-)

  • Dennis Sanders


    Minnesota Public Radio has Obama up by 20 points.

  • Andy

    Yeah, I wouldn’t buy into the MN numbers too much since McCain is reducing his ads there. I think it’s understandable that PA would tighten. The state was very close in 2000 and 2004 and McCain is seemingly making it Waterloo. I think the idea that Obama would win there by double digits was always a little foolish. Still, McCain is down 4 points (at best, apparently) in a state that has become must-win.

  • Avinash_Tyagi

    Mason Dixon has a Republican house effect, so I would take these with a large grain of salt, even the Arizona one, which is probably closer than four points