Charlie Cook Talks Electoral Predictions

Charlie Cook Talks Electoral Predictions


Not surprisingly, he doesn’t see good things for McCain.

In fact, it’s so grim that he essentially says that if McCain wins, nobody should trust him anymore. Pretty bold, but I have the same feelings. I know people have been hemming and hawing about the fact that “anything” could happen, but nobody has provided any sort of reality to back that up.

In any event…check out this clip…

Also, check out the map over at Cook’s website, which is different than MSNBC’s…

Pretty stunning, no?

According to Cook, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota and Georgia are in the toss up column.

As I’ve said many times in the past, I don’t think any of these will turn blue this season, but if they do it’ll be devastating for the Republican party and would probably signal a 60 seat supermajority in the Senate.

  • Chris

    Something caught my eye in that video, it showed WI being red in 2004. I’m fairly sure it wasn’t. yeah just checked, Kerry won WI in 2004. weird.

  • ExiledIndependent

    If the polls are off by 5% (and how accurate were they during the primaries this election season? Not very), what does that do to the numbers?

  • Avinash_Tyagi

    Depends on which way, off as in understating Obama’s support (more likely considering early turnout) or off as in overstating his support, if the former than Obama goes from winning decisively, around 350 EVs, to probably carrying over 450 EVs, other way around, it becomes a nail biter that probably comes down to the wire in one state, the reason is, Obama has a firewall of states that are trending more than 5% in his direction, so even a five point shift in favor of McCain wouldn’t assure McCain of victory, it would only give him a chance, however early turnout and enthusiasm is firmly on Obama’s side, so it doesn’t seem very likely