Pollster.com’s Trend Estimates

Pollster.com’s Trend Estimates


The poll of the polls…

Note that it’s more likely that Obama will win North Dakota than Florida. Pretty crazy.

My guess on Tuesday is that if voters are still undecided at this point they’ll break for McCain because they’re essentially okay with Bush’s 8 years and McCain would clearly be an extension of that.

So…what does that mean as far as the swing states go?

Any state where Obama is below 50% is up certainly up for grabs. That means all of the toss-ups in yellow and Ohio. So my gut tells me McCain will eek out wins in all of these states.

What do you think?

  • Trescml

    Obama will win a couple of the toss-ups but will lose Ohio. He will still win enough EVs to win.

  • Avinash_Tyagi

    I think you’re overselling McCain’s chances, since it would take nearly 100% undecideds , especially in Ohio, for McCain to break past Obama, that is extremely unlikely, its possible, but it would be a first, undecideds will likely break 3 to 2 in favor of McCain, at most 2 to 1, and once you factor in third party voters, cellphone only voters and increased turnout i’d say that Obama gets most of those states, Ohio, Florida, North Carolina are very likely Obama, Montana and Georgia will be likely McCain, unless GOTV really sends a lot to the polls, and the others are coin flips.

    I think you’re overselling some hidden Bradley effect, when in fact most elections have undecided voters right up to the end, and they don’t break for one person entirely, usually they break more in favor of one, but not overwhelmingly so