Before we get into the details, one very important thing I want to point out is that the Obama team is starting to make this plan bullet proof. Because not only are 90% of the projected jobs going to be created in the private sector, but the 10% of government jobs are those that are saved by helping states fill in the gaps in their budgets. Basically, we know those jobs are needed because they already exist.
Long story short, Obama’s plan may add approximately ZERO new government jobs so it’ll be nearly impossible for critics to spin this as bigger government.
Here’s his weekly “radio” address:
And here’s more from the NY Times:
Without an economic recovery plan, the report warned, the unemployment rate could hit 9 percent, up from 7.2 percent now. If the plan is adopted, unemployment is still expected to rise, but the rate is predicted to begin falling in the second half of 2009.
The 14-page report, prepared by Christina D. Romer, Mr. Obamaâ€™s pick to lead his Council of Economic Advisers, and Jared Bernstein, an economic adviser to Vice President-elect Joseph R. Biden Jr., was released to provide specific examples for the first time of the types of jobs that could be created. It was intended to counter some criticism that Mr. Obamaâ€™s plan would create new bureaucracies rather than put people to work.
The reported offered a detailed industry-by-industry breakdown on the jobs the Obama administration hopes to create with its stimulus plain.
The report is here. Please read it because it’s only 14 pages long and if you want to make an informed decision about Obama’s plan, you should do at least that much.
The jobs created as a result of spending are as follows…
244,000 from Health Care
250,000 from Education
377,000 from Infrastructure
459,000 from Energy
470,000 from Business Tax
505,000 from Making Work Pay Tax Cut
549,000 from Protecting Vulnerable
821,000 from State Relief
3,675,000 Total jobs
And here’s the breakdown by industry…
11,000 for Utilities
26,000 for Mining
50,000 for Information
98,000 for Transportation and Warehousing
99,000 for Other Services
158,000 for Wholesale Trade
214,000 for Financial Activities
240,000 for Education and Health Services
244,000 for Government
345,000 for Professional and Business Services
408,000 for Manufacturing
499,000 for Leisure and Hospitality
604,000 for Retail Trade
678,000 for Construction
3,675,000 Total jobs
So what does Washington think?
Well, right now we have the Democrats on one side criticizing the tax cuts and wanting more spending on infrastructure and bigger government. At the same time on the other side we have Republicans saying that there’s too much government spending and we should have more tax cuts.
So it seems like this plan hits the sweet spot right in between these arguments and so I think it has a good chance of passing in the current form, especially since Pelosi and Reid have signaled that they want broad support for the stimulus, not just narrow victories.
More as it develops…