2012: Barack Obama Versus… Mike Huckabee?

2012: Barack Obama Versus… Mike Huckabee?


Some interesting polling numbers from PPP via Pollster.com:

Favorable / Unfavorable
Newt Gingrich: 33 / 42
Mike Huckabee: 45 / 28
Sarah Palin: 40 / 49
Mitt Romney: 37 / 34

2012 President
Obama 49%, Gingrich 41%
Obama 47%, Huckabee 44%
Obama 52%, Palin 38%
Obama 47%, Romney 40%

What is most notable to me are the 2012 presidential match-ups. Mike Huckabee is the favorite right now — over Gingrich or Romney. What is that all about?

It seems that most hardcore conservatives that I know or read claim that they loathe the Huckster (and the Club For Growth certainly has a disdain for him). Most seem to favor either Gingrich or Romney. Heck, B-Diddy [an über-conservative contributor at my blog] and I even had a conversation wherein he described a Romney/Gingrich “dream ticket” for 2012. I’m not sure about that idea, but what I do know is that Huckabee has some kind of traction for 2012 already — especially since Sarah Palin continues to embarrass herself and other Republicans.

So the question remains; are Republicans going to warm to Mike Huckabee?

  • Agnostick

    If Newt gets serious consideration two years from now, will he still be on Wife #3? Or will he have moved on to Wife #4?

    Remember, Calista: Once upon a time, you were the young intern that Newt was screwing, while he was married. Are you really sure that he’s changed, just because he married you? Are you keeping tabs on his current crop of young interns, Calista?

    Not. A. Chance.

  • http://purecommonsense.net Mike

    From a Republican perspective, I believe that it will be very tough for Huckabee to win support from fiscal conservatives given his big spending policies. I don’t think those polls have any weight at this point in the game. Giuliani led all the polls but then once the primaries came around and the social conservatives wouldn’t back him, reality sunk in. Heck, after the 2004 election people were even talking about MEL GIBSON as a possible Republican nominee in 2008! So, like I said, its too early to tell.

  • http://detroitskeptic.com/blogs Nick Benjamin

    Huckabee will always poll well. He’s a nice guy so moderates won’t vote against him. He’s also reliably conservative on social issues so the largest voting block in the GOP likes him. His problem is that he’s moderate on economic issues, which means the business-conservative types can’t stand him.

    Don’t pay too much attention to these polls. Right now there’s been no campaign. We don’t know what issues will be important in 2012. And these guys still have three full years to do something really stupid.

  • gerryf

    Huckabee appeals to the base and has a congenial personality that isn’t threatening to independents–unless he’s pandering to the base. And that is his problem.

    He’s a candidate killer in the primary; he takes all of the social conservative voters and leaves the fiscal conservatives fumbling for the rest, which means anything can happen.

    He is probably most responsible for McCain squeaking through as Huckabee stayed in the race so long that neither Romney nor Guiliani could gain traction.

  • Mike A.

    Look, Huckabee seems to be a likable person. But have you ever seen him in “evangelical mode”? I don’t believe he can carry the center.

  • http://westanddivided.blogspot.com/ mw

    I wonder… How many people in 2005 were predicting that Barack Obama would be the Democratic Party nominee for President?

  • Redbus

    Mike Huckabee has what no other GOP candidate does:

    1. He’s funny;
    2. He’s socially conservative;
    3. He’s well-educated and urbane;
    4. He can hunt.

    With all this going for him, he’ll get a pass on the fiscal issues, as long as he looks like he’s willing to track right on spending issues.

    He’ll be our new President in 2012.

  • Alistair

    Mike will be like George W Bush by pushing Neo’Con idealogy. He`won’t be our new President 2012.

  • superdestroyer

    Since no Republican has a chance of beating President Obama in 2012. So the best candidate for the Republicans is one that will mentor and develop younger candidates for the next generation, will help in lower ticket races, is as articulate and President Obama, and is very knowledge of the issues.

    Huckabee is none of those. He is inarticulate in a George Bush kind of way. He has little interest in the issues and in incoherent and inconsistent in his views. He is an authoritarian that would lose in a 50 state route. Huckabee would be incapable of devilering Arkansas let alone any other state. He is such a bad candidate he would probably lose Utah, Idaho, and Alabama.

  • http://centristcoalition.com/blog/ kranky kritter

    Huckabee is a likeable populist. That’s the discernible organizing feature of his appeal. he says sensible things that warm average folks’ hearts. Not that there’s anything wrong with that, BTW. Once folks become more clear on his full range of thoughts and ideas, the upside limit to his appeal will IMO also be clear.

    Palin won’t run. Neither will Gingrich. So all we really know from the data is that the two guys who we can assume will be running, Romney and Huckabee, have similar levels of appeal. That’s it.

    We can also assume that at least one more serious contender has yet to emerge. From where? I dunno. But if I had to guess, I would bet on whoever can lay plausible claim to some sort of [email protected] rhetoric like along the lines of let’s say “sheltering our great nation from the assaults of socialist Obamistas.”

    So if for example the GOP manages to defeat some big Obama initiative, look for suspects among whatever pack of republicans is eating through the other @ssholes to get his face on camera and take credit.

    Personally, I’ll cheerfully acknowledge that aspects of Huckabee have substantial appeal. But he also IMO has a little bit of kook in him. So I expect that by the time his 3rd bid in 2016 rolls around, people will be calling him quixotic. But hey, at least he’s not a sanctimonious douche like Nader.

  • DK

    I think Obama certainly could be vulnerable in 2012. Huckabee does seem to be one of the best known Republicans who is not damaged goods right now. IMO Palin, McCain, Sanford, and Guiliani are done, and will not be a factor in 2012. I also think it’s highly unlikely Newt Gingrich can take the nomination because of his past. I’m not sure who else is out there, since I certainly don’t think any of the current Republican congressional leadership is impressing anyone, although I think there might be room for Shelby to run as a true fiscal conservative (he vocally opposed TARP and the bailouts).

    So, barring any newcomers appearing between now and 2012, I think the 2012 Republican race will be between Huckabee, Romney, Pawlenty, Jindal, and Ron Paul (assuming Ron Paul is still healthy enough to run in 2012- he will be 76). Given that lineup, I think either Huckabee or Pawlenty will be the likely nominee.

    Huckabee scares the left more than the moderates, so I think he’s electable.

  • FairTaxNowpleez

    Huckabee, Inarticulate? Doesn’t need a propmpter or notes. Has the quickest wit and shoot from the hip spot on answers ever seen. He is eating up the Neilson ratings on his Fox news show with a prime time weekend slot (both nights). He beats all the other 3 main cable news networks combined with points to spare. He is on ABC radio 3 times a day every week day with over 100 affiliates and growing. Id say that is an inarticulate man wouldn’t you? people should really consider facts before posting. He has won the PPP polling for 2012 for 5 months in a row now and this a poll of ALL voters not just republicans. This latest poll shows his net favorability ratings are crushing the others. He has brought himself within the margin of error with the “chosen one” only 7 mths into B. O.’s downward spiral. Anyone saying he is not going to be a strong candidate in 2012 is living in an alternative reality.

  • Mike

    Ron Paul is the only sane member left in the GOP. One year ago none of these top GOP contenders were speaking out against the Bush big spending, but now everyone is criticizing Obama big spending. Except Paul. I think that says a lot about the GOP. This coming from a republican who left the party to become an independent.

  • Allen

    Agnostick, thanks for the lecture on fidelity, you are right, Republicans can’t be trusted in this area, we need real leaders like Roosevelt, Kennedy (pick one), Hart, Clinton, Edwards, Jackson….see the light my friend…its the 90s, forward ever backward never!

  • http://www.swimmingpoolpumpsreviewed.com/ Lara Williams

    Obama’s closest opponent to the presidential race next year is Sarah Palin in my opinion. Too bad she has been put in bad publicity stint. She would have been the biggest contender of Obama for next year’s national election.

  • http://handymandouglascounty.com/ Gene

    Ron Paul all the way! I could not stand another 4 years of Obama, and neither could our country. The debt he has racked up makes GW look like a penny pincher.

  • http://www.h0tdealz.com Tess

    Republicans going to warm to Mike Huckabee? Absolutely!!!

    With the economy the way it is… we need change!