Gallup: GOP Leads By 10 In Generic Ballot

Gallup: GOP Leads By 10 In Generic Ballot


Yesterday, mw laid out a few compelling scenarios for this fall and they look plausible to me. After all, we’re talking about numbers from folks like Nate Silver.

And today we see that the mood for GOPers is a lot more than the Dems. At least according to Gallup.

Here’s the key graph…

And, as always, enthusiasm matters…

Maybe it is going to be an anti-incumbent year after all?

More as it develops…

  • Alistair

    Well Justin if that happen the GOP will be listening to Dick Morris message, shut down Government in Congress.

  • mw

    This is an impressive poll, but I’m always leery about reading too much into generic polls and I am still dubious about the GOP taking the House. It is a well known phenomena that voters will say one thing in a generic poll, then turn around and vote the opposite way for their specific representative. It took the Dems two cycles to build this majority, and that was with a lot of tailwinds at their back. It is certainly going to be a big GOP wave, and it is going to be close, but I won’t be surprised to see the GOP come up just short when the votes are counted.

    For my liberal friends who seem a little more despondent than usual, I’d just like to remind them of some of the very positive results that emerged the last time we had a Republican Congress threatening a Democratic President with shutting down the government and generally at each other’s throats. I’ll even quote directly from Clinton/Gore’s own hyperbolic arm-breaking back-patting website:

    # Longest economic expansion in American history
    The President’s strategy of fiscal discipline, open foreign markets and investments in the American people helped create the conditions for a record 115 months of economic expansion. Our economy has grown at an average of 4 percent per year since 1993.

    # More than 22 million new jobs
    More than 22 million jobs were created in less than eight years — the most ever under a single administration, and more than were created in the previous twelve years.

    # Lowest unemployment in 30 years
    Unemployment dropped from more than 7 percent in 1993 to just 4.0 percent in November 2000. Unemployment for African Americans and Hispanics fell to the lowest rates on record, and the rate for women is the lowest in more than 40 years.

    # Raised education standards, increased school choice, and doubled education and training investment
    Since 1992, reading and math scores have increased for 4th, 8th, and 12th graders, math SAT scores are at a 30-year high, the number of charter schools has grown from 1 to more than 2,000, forty-nine states have put in place standards in core subjects and federal investment in education and training has doubled.

    # Lowest crime rate in 26 years
    Because of President Clinton’s comprehensive anti-crime strategy of tough penalties, more police, and smart prevention, as well as common sense gun safety laws, the overall crime rate declined for 8 consecutive years, the longest continuous drop on record, and is at the lowest level since 1973.

    # Smallest welfare rolls in 32 years
    The President pledged to end welfare as we know it and signed landmark bipartisan welfare reform legislation in 1996. Since then, caseloads have been cut in half, to the lowest level since 1968, and millions of parents have joined the workforce. People on welfare today are five times more likely to be working than in 1992.

    # Higher incomes at all levels
    After falling by nearly $2,000 between 1988 and 1992, the median family’s income rose by $6,338, after adjusting for inflation, since 1993. African American family income increased even more, rising by nearly $7,000 since 1993. After years of stagnant income growth among average and lower income families, all income brackets experienced double-digit growth since 1993. The bottom 20 percent saw the largest income growth at 16.3 percent.

    # Paid off $360 billion of the national debt
    Between 1998-2000, the national debt was reduced by $363 billion — the largest three-year debt pay-down in American history. We are now on track to pay off the entire debt by 2009.

    # Converted the largest budget deficit in American history to the largest surplus Thanks in large part to the 1993 Deficit Reduction Act, the 1997 Balanced Budget Act, and President Clinton’s call to save the surplus for debt reduction, Social Security, and Medicare solvency, America has put its fiscal house in order. The deficit was $290 billion in 1993 and expected to grow to $455 billion by this year. Instead, we have a projected surplus of $237 billion.

    # Lowest government spending in three decades
    Under President Clinton federal government spending as a share of the economy has decreased from 22.2 percent in 1992 to a projected 18.5 percent in 2000, the lowest since 1966.

    # Lowest federal income tax burden in 35 years
    President Clinton enacted targeted tax cuts such as the Earned Income Tax Credit expansion, $500 child tax credit, and the HOPE Scholarship and Lifetime Learning Tax Credits. Federal income taxes as a percentage of income for the typical American family have dropped to their lowest level in 35 years.

    Ah… the good ol’ days… productive partisan bickering, shared power, and real compromise.

  • Alistair


    You know I see your point BUT this is new, these GOP are different than the GOP back then when you had Moderates/Right leaning people like Joe Scarborough, Bob Nay who are no longer in congress and would be considered to be RINO’s by the hard right. These GOPers still believe in Tax Cuts on the Middle Class, cutting Medicare, instead of cutting Military spending like Libertarian GOP leaders like Ron Paul.

  • mw

    Yes those Republicans were very different them, always looking for compromise, working hand in glove with the President for the betterment of all, never trying to blow up small partisan issues into a media fueled circus, certainly not the kind of vast right wing conspiracy that would impeach a sitting president for lying under oath about a blow job and certainly not the kind of Republicans who would literally shut down the government over a budget dispute. That is why the combination accomplished so much.

    Oh wait….

  • Alistair


    We shall see if Darrell Isa doesn’t start investigation on the administration on Jan 20. 2011 if the GOP wins the house.

  • mw

    Of course he will. Oversight of the executive branch is part of the constitutional responsibility of the Congress. Investigations into the executive branch by Congress is exactly the kind of check and balance intended by the architects of the constitution when they designed a government with separation of power into co-equal branches of government.

    It is only when one party controls all branches and the investigations stop, like with the Republicans under Bush, and Democrats under Obama, that our government ceases to work the way it was designed.

    James Madison from Federalist #51

    “But the great security against a gradual concentration of the several powers in the same department, consists in giving to those who administer each department the necessary constitutional means and personal motives to resist encroachments of the others. The provision for defense must in this, as in all other cases, be made commensurate to the danger of attack. Ambition must be made to counteract ambition. The interest of the man must be connected with the constitutional rights of the place. It may be a reflection on human nature, that such devices should be necessary to control the abuses of government. But what is government itself, but the greatest of all reflections on human nature? If men were angels, no government would be necessary. If angels were to govern men, neither external nor internal controls on government would be necessary. In framing a government which is to be administered by men over men, the great difficulty lies in this: you must first enable the government to control the governed; and in the next place oblige it to control itself.

    A dependence on the people is, no doubt, the primary control on the government; but experience has taught mankind the necessity of auxiliary precautions. This policy of supplying, by opposite and rival interests, the defect of better motives, might be traced through the whole system of human affairs, private as well as public. We see it particularly displayed in all the subordinate distributions of power, where the constant aim is to divide and arrange the several offices in such a manner as that each may be a check on the other that the private interest of every individual may be a sentinel over the public rights. “

    The founders hoped that our freedoms would be protected by setting the imperfect men and women who govern us at cross purposes – to hold each other in check. It is when they are not fighting and investigating one another, that we should be worried.

  • Chris

    Not related to the blog post, but since I saw afp in the video there, I thought I’d post this up:

  • Alistair


    Okay suppose if the GOP does win the house and possibly the senate which I believe they’ll fall short, will the economy turn around buy creating new jobs, will we have a balance budget without the treat of a government shut down. Will the GOP be at each other throat like the were in during the 90’s opening up a possible 3rd party run by libertarian Ron Paul, Gary Johnson, Judge Andrew Napolitano or Lou Dobbs? While it looks gloomy for the DNC the GOP could be at each others throats in 2011.

  • mw

    I’d like an easier question.

  • Jim Satterfield

    As I noted in another thread, when Clinton was on trial in the Senate there were Republicans who voted not guilty. Most of them are gone now and it’s highly questionable whether the ones who took their place would do so under any circumstances. The constant push from the far right for rigid ideological purity is much stronger than even during the Clinton presidency. Look at McCain’s campaign. Consider the conservatives that have been defeated in primaries by Tea Party supported ultra-conservatives.

  • Alistair


    And it won’t get any easier because the GOP has decided to listen to the wingnut like Glenn Beck, Rush Limbaugh and the rest of the Fox talking points people. Now if they really want to go peanut crazy by talking about the President’s birth certification or that he’s a Muslim so be it because it could cost them again in 2012 who over is running for President.

  • mw

    You mean tea party supported candidates like Scott Brown in Massachusetts, who many consider to be left of some of the Democrats in the Senate? Or Carly Fiorina who was the centrist Republican in the California Primary against the hard right conservative Chuck Devore and left leaning Tom Campbell? Scott Brown was a Tea Party favorite and Carly got the highest percentage of Tea Party support.

    It looks to me like the Tea Party has calibrated support to candidates across the spectrum depending on the state. In Massachusetts and California they supported moderate to slightly left candidates (for a Republican) – which coincidentally is exactly the kind of candidates needed to win in those states. In more conservative states they definitely got behind more conservative candidates where the political make-up of the state would support them in a general election. In other cases it looks more like they are supporting anti-establishment outsiders who do not hold remarkably different political positions than the candidates they replaced.

    In general it looks like they have done a good job putting up some new faces and voices. Its not perfect, of course – As I’ve said before I think Sharron Angle was a huge mistake. Oddly, Nevada voters apparently disagree, and think it is a coin flip whether sending Angle or Reid to the Senate is the bigger mistake.

  • Alistair


    It looks like Sarah Palin is turning against Scott Brown.

  • JimS

    Sharron Angle, Rand Paul and Joe Miller come to mind. Then there’s Marco Rubio in Florida and the Crist fiasco. Fiorina certainly didn’t run as a moderate. Palin endorsed her but the Tea Party groups and people like DeMint supported DeVore in spite of how hard to the right Fiorina tried to move. While it’s not absolute and unanimous, the move even further to the right than during Clinton’s presidency can only be denied by someone determined to ignore the current political realities in the U.S., for whatever reason. And as Alistair pointed out, and has been obvious for a while now, Scott Brown probably can’t count on Tea Party support again.

  • mw

    Yeah – it looks like the Tea Party is not the mindless, monolithic, groupthink, robotic slaves to Glenn Beck as many on the left want to portray it. It actually encompasses quite a heterogeneous diversity of views on a variety of issues. The one thing that holds them together is general agreement that the single most important issue is dealing with the insane spending and fiscal irresponsibility in Washington DC.

    Paul, Miller, Rubio, Fiorina and Scott Brown are all independent thinkers and will make fine Senators. Crist is his own worst enemy, cannot figure out where he stands himself, is on every side of every issue, and voters see him for the duplicitous hack that he is.

    Angle is a joke (I think of her as the Barbara Boxer of the right), but it is up to the Nevada voters which of the two jokes they have to choose from will represent them in the Senate. Apparently they are having a hard time deciding which is worse. Poor bastards.

    I am particularly gratified to see that Rand Paul will likely win. It’ll be good to have a clear libertarianish voice in the Senate. It does not mean the country or Senate is turning more libertarian, any more than having the self described socialist Bernie Sanders in the Senate means the country is turning socialist. Both represent a perspective that is shared by a significant number of Americans, although in both cases it is a small minority of the electorate. It is a very good thing that both these voices will be heard in that chamber.

    Sarah Palin is not the Tea Party, and does not represent the Tea Party. Neither do the favorite bogeymen of the left – Beck and Limbaugh. I am certain that many self described tea partiers do listen to them and find them entertaining, as many on the left enjoy having their views validated by watching the equally vacuous entertainers Olbermann, Moore, and Schultz. I suspect that at least part of the attraction is the fun watching lefties blow out a blood vessel with their keyboard pounding, spittle flecked screen, apoplectic anti-Beck temper tantrums. I don’t watch or listen to the guy, but I seem to wind up seeing most of what he says from the lefty blogs I read.

    Frankly I don’t think that Palin, Beck, and Limbaugh actually understand what the Tea Party is about. I’m not even sure that most Tea Party participants understand what the Tea Party is about. But there is one thing that I am certain about – The Tea Party is absolutely nothing like the way lefties like JimS wants to portray them.

  • Jim Satterfield

    The Tea Party virtually worships Palin, otherwise her endorsements wouldn’t carry so much weight. A poll in April showed 75% approval ratings among Tea Party activists (Note that this refers to the activists, meaning those who actually attend their events.) and that 50% of the activists thought she was a qualified candidate for President. Beck’s approval among them is just as high. They do not simply find him entertaining, as you try to claim. They take his word as fact as anyone who reads their comments on news web sites or blogs can plainly tell. They apparently are not nearly dismissive of them as you tend to be. In addition 75% of them received their political news from Fox.

    Miller is not an original thinker. His positions on the issues jibes quite well with the current standard of the far right, including a complete ban on abortion which includes no exception for rape or incest, privatization of Social Security, privatization of Medicare, elimination of multiple government departments including that awful conservative bugaboo, the Department of Education. Other than actually telling Alaskans that they, too, will have to sacrifice federal money that flows to them nothing seems very original.

    But at least as elections draw near once again your mask slips off, showing how far too the lunatic right you really tend to be and how much you hate those who don’t agree with them. I do not need to portray the members of the Tea Party as anything, they self-identify in poll after poll. But you deny it vociferously even as they put the lie to your claims with their own words. Your certainty seems to be that of the willfully ignorant.