CBS/NYT Poll Shows Cain Besting Romney

CBS/NYT Poll Shows Cain Besting Romney


Analysis soon, but first the numbers…

I continue to be surprised by the sudden rise of Herman Cain. Here’s a guy who has said some unbelievably wacky things on the campaign trail, is just as vague and unfocused as Rick Perry, and yet he seems to be bullet proof when it comes to polling.

In some ways it reminds me of Howard Dean’s rise in 2004 when many anti-war Dems sided with him as an alternative to John Kerry. And that’s what’s really going on here. Because even though Cain’s faults are glaringly obvious, the Tea Party favoring Cain almost 2 to 1 over Romney…

That’s right Republicans…welcome to your brave new world. Cain is the Tea Party’s candidate.

Still, is he really a viable candidate? Reports of his non-existent campaign are already casting heavy doubts as to whether or not he can actually get out the vote when the primary season begins. And then there’s Karl Rove, who is trying to single-handedly scuttle Cain’s campaign.

So, my guess…eventually Cain will implode because of something he says or work he’s not doing on the ground in key, early primary states.

But until then we’re going to enjoy the ride.

  • cranky critter

    Cain is winning the battle to represent the “socon+tea party” wing of the conservative party. That’s what you should think.

    Also, understand that from your perspective it’s difficult to understand the “says wacky things” phenomenon, but from the SS+TP wing’s view, that looks and feels like unapologetic steadfastness. The SC+TP wing really, really like it when their guy doesn’t back down and apologize for saying something in a way that irritates liberals. IOW, It looks like a bug to you, but it feels like a feature to the folks choosing the candidate.

    Prime example: “unemployed people should blame themselves.” You can bitch about what he said and how he said it, but many people see a clear point in that quote and what he’s subsequently said about it, and agree with that point. They’re very tired of folks ignoring the clear gist of a point simply stated in favor of getting your panties all atwist about how it was stated. And while I don’t support Cain, I agree with that bit about not getting al bent out of shape. Some people are just too eager to get offended, and that gets in the way of authentic communication.

  • Shane

    So, the tea party is favoring the black candidate over all of the rich, white republicans by a near 2-1 margin? Who wants to call Morgan Freeman and tell him?

  • khaki

    It’s also significant that he’s a black man saying these things. Supporting Cain inoculates the TP from the racism charges to a degree. They also like the idea of a successful black man talking down the black liberal mindset – he can say things white TPer’s can’t. (TPer’s aren’t really racist against blacks in general, they’re classist against poor people who don’t pay enough taxes – in their opinion – and consume public services. minorities just happen to be a convenient catch all.) There is also perhaps a hope that Cain will peel off some portion of black votes – although I think the polls indicate he has virtually no chance in a general. Wouldn’t it be a kicker to see two black men on the ballot next year! I hope so for so many reasons. Awesome.

  • Tully

    Here’s some newer polling takes for you.

  • khaki

    In the general:
    Obama has Cain by 8.2% (average)
    Obama has Romney by 1.2%
    And as has been noted before: a generic Republican has Obama by 2% (!)

    Too bad the GOP can’t run a cardboard cut-out (although Romney is pretty close.) :) Fascinating.

  • cranky critter

    What matters in the primary race is the state-by-states not the national polls. The national polls STILL don’t matter as much as the state-by-states after we know the finalists. But at least they’re a little relevant compared to now.

    People reliably lie in the national polls as a way of casting a protest sentiment against whatever they’re unhappy about. In other words, a fair number of people who have never voted for a Republican (and MAY never) are expressing an anti-Obama sentiment of disappointment and anger.

    We just won’t have a very good idea of Obama’s re-election chances until late spring.

  • jjray

    >>I continue to be surprised by the sudden rise of Herman Cain. <<

    I'm suspicious of the repub primary polling numbers. There is no way to logically explain this man's sudden rise in popularity. I think Cain's candidacy acts as a staking horse for Romney.