Romney And Cain Neck And Neck In Iowa

Romney And Cain Neck And Neck In Iowa


More poll numbers show nationwide support for a Cain presidency.

From Des Moines Register:

DES MOINES, Iowa – Herman Cain and Mitt Romney top The Des Moines Register’s new Iowa Poll, with the retired pizza executive edging the former Massachusetts governor 23 percent to 22 percent in the race for the Republican presidential nomination.

Cain has surged 13 percentage points since the first Iowa Poll of the caucus cycle, conducted in late June. His rise has come despite spending little time in Iowa recently, campaigning here just once since the Aug. 13 Iowa straw poll, where he placed fifth.

So where’s the support coming from? No surprise.

Romney has stayed exactly where he was in the Register’s previous poll, but Bachmann and Cain have pretty much swapped places. Who supported Bachmann and are now calling her to get out of the race? No need to guess…you know.

From June…

Romney, the national front-runner and a familiar face in Iowa after his 2008 presidential run, attracts support from 23 percent of likely Republican caucus-goers. Bachmann, who will officially kick off her campaign in Iowa on Monday, nearly matches him, with 22 percent.

“She’s up there as a real competitor and a real contender,” said Republican pollster Randy Gutermuth, who is unaffiliated with any of the presidential candidates. “This would indicate that she’s going to be a real player in Iowa.”

Former Godfather’s CEO Herman Cain, who has never held public office but has found a following among tea party supporters, comes in third, with 10 percent.

Still, it’s way too early to know whether or not these folks won’t go for Romney when it comes to caucus for a candidate or cast their ballot. My guess is many will because they want to beat Obama and Romney is really the only one who can make a stand. But the parallels between 2004 when Dems were completely uninspired by a Massachusetts politician and this year when Repubs seem to be completely uninspired by a Massachusetts politician are pretty apparent.

And with the GDP growing and the stock market having its best month in 25 years…it’s going to be tougher to hit Obama with the economy if positive signs keep popping up.

Potentially tough road ahead for the GOP.

  • mw

    You can never underestimate the power of an incumbent President. Agree it’ll be Obama / Romney, and it’s likely Obama will win with a narrow victory. The wild card is 3rd Party entries, and that could come from the right, left, or center. Then all bets are off.

    I fully expect Bloomberg to run on the Unity 12 Americans Elect ticket, but I cannot figure who he spoils it for. I expect that nationally he’ll pull more support from Romney, but he has a chance of taking New York’s electoral votes as a favorite son. If Obama loses NY to Bloomberg, he’s toast.

    Outside the presidency, the GOP will do fine, regardless of any mild improvement in the state of the economy. They’ll maintain a somewhat narrower majority in the house and take the majority in the Senate. Which is what I’ve been saying since the last election.

    As far as Cain is concerned, I just cannot make myself care about anything that happens in that campaign. He is as unprepared for the media scrum of a national campaign as Palin was in 2008. He had zero chance of becoming the Republican nominee when he entered the campaign, and has somehow managed to screw up his chances even more since then.

  • khaki

    mw: “He is as unprepared for the media scrum of a national campaign as Palin was in 2008.”

    As is Perry, as was Trump, as was Bachman, as are basically all of the Tea Party darlings. I think one of Obama’s biggest assets going into 2012 is the cavalcade of half-wits that the Tea Party have pushed to the front over the course of this primary campaign plus a few memorable Senate seats in 2010 (Angle / O’Donnell). I’m anxious to see how Romney handles his tack back to the center after he secures the nod, and how the tea party reacts. It’s not just these candidates that are unprepared and shooting themselves in the foot, it’s the whole extreme right wing. We’ll see if they shoot Romney once they run out of their own ‘feet’.