Gallup: Romney And Cain Tied. Gingrich Keeps Inching Up.

Gallup: Romney And Cain Tied. Gingrich Keeps Inching Up.


As many of you know, I’m a poll junkie and the latest Gallup numbers are just the fix I need.

First, there’s Romney’s anemic numbers that show a candidate who is chronically unable to excite the base. That’s not surprising given Romney’s moderate record in Massachusetts and inability to really connect with the conservative base.

Then there’s the train wreck that is Herman Cain. He’s the flavor of the month that will no doubt leave a horrible taste in the GOP’s mouth if they keep giving him. I’m sorry, but you don’t get accused by five different people at five different times of the same thing and not done something to provoke it.

Still, Republicans don’t seem to really care. More from Gallup…

  • Fifty-three percent of Republicans are inclined to believe that the charges are not true, with most of these hedging their bets by saying the charges are “probably not true” rather than “definitely not true.” A little more than a third (35%) say the charges are probably or definitely true — again, with most of these in the probable rather than the definite category.
  • Republicans with an opinion are inclined to say Cain has done a good job (45%) rather than a bad job (36%) of handing the charges, although almost one in five don’t have an opinion.
  • About half of Republicans are following the news stories about the sexual harassment allegations against Cain very or somewhat closely. This level of attention is lower than the average attention all Americans have paid to news stories Gallup has tracked over the last several decades. The group following the news very or somewhat closely is about as likely to believe the charges against Cain are true as are all Republicans more broadly. At the same time, this group is slightly more likely to be critical of Cain’s response, with 47% saying Cain is doing a good job and 48% a bad job of responding.

Personally, I think Cain is toast because of the allegations, but who knows. Republicans like Herman Cain, and they won’t let something like sexual harassment get in the way.

Then there’s Newt Gingrich, who’s positioning himself as the voice of conservative reason in the chorus of also-rans. I’m not surprised he’s gaining momentum, but I do question whether or not the GOP will ever really embrace him as a realistic nominee.

But Newt as a veep? Hmmm…talk about a counterpoint to Biden.

More as it develops…

  • cranky critter

    It’s still exhibition season until the primaries start.Someone will be cast in the role of staunch conservative standard bearer against Romney. If Cain falters, that leaves Perry and Gingrich. Perry has made for himself a big wall of doubt to overcome. Gingrich is sooooo unpopular outside his clique. So . . .

    Romney in the billiard room, with the candlestick. Or Romney by the end of February, by default.

    The only wrench I can imagine in the works is that the right wing is so unhappy with Romney that we’ll see the candidacy of an ideologue to be named later. A “draft Palin” effort seems almost inevitable. Anyone who has said no but remains popular is a possibility to be revisited again.

  • mw

    “Romney by the end of February, by default.” – cc

    Most likely, but that does not leave much of a regular season. By the time votes are counted its over. All the action is in the exhibition season.

    I sort through the faltering GOP Calvary charge like this – What we are learning in the exibtion season is who among the candidates has the intellectual heft and communication skills to go toe to toe with Romney and be perceived as “presidential”? This eliminates Bachman, Perry, Santorum and Cain. I expect this distinction will become even more clear in tonight’s CNBC debate, where you’ll have a panel that has a much better understanding of economic issues than most of usual MSM talking heads and certainly more than the candidates.

    Ron Paul has the intellectual heft and communication skills, but nobody really sees him as Presidential. We already know from the 2008 campaign that he caps out at less than 15% of the GOP voters.

    So unless someone (else) comes out of the woodwork, the only serious candidates are Romney, Gingrich, and Huntsman. Gingrich will probably consolidate the anti-Romney vote but his baggage won’t go away, and – so far – Huntsman cannot seem to get any traction. Absent that – Romney by default.

    It also helps that Romney has a real on-the-ground organization, given the rest -this feels insurmountable. It may be over by the middle of January.