Newt Up Big In Early States, But New Hampshire Remains Question Mark

Newt Up Big In Early States, But New Hampshire Remains Question Mark

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According to the new TIME/CNN poll

In Iowa, he leads by 13 points…

In South Carolina, he leads by 23 points..

In Florida, he leads by, again, 23 points…

In New Hampshire, he trails by 19 points…

Can Newt make up the difference in that ever important state?

More as it develops..

  • khaki

    For tis the sport to watch the GOP
    hoist with its own petard.

  • http://mainstreetincolumbus.blogspot.com/ Brad Krumm

    Although it’s not a one-for-one comparison between 1980 and 2012, there are strong parallels developing never the less. The most recent is a possible Gingrich / Romney nomination matchup similar to that of one which took place between Ronald Reagan and H.W. Bush in 1980. Gingrich Romney in 2012? President Obama should have reason to be concerned.

  • cranky critter

    Geez, Justin, I would have thought you’d be able to foresee the pattern.

    Here’s how it will go. Someone is going to be the favorite of the the further right, the “Not Romney.” Right now it’s Newt, but it could fall to Ron Paul if Newt plummets in the face of what are likely to be a vicious 4-week rehash of his flaws.

    Whoever plays the Not Romney will win in places like Iowa and SC and so on, all the redder than red never pick a democrat states. By a fairly large margin.In the other states Romney will win, but by much smaller margins, except in the Northeast.

  • khaki

    cc – Does that mean you predict that Romney wins? The polls make me wonder if Gingrich won’t pick up a fair number of the not-redder-than-red states, too. Those “smaller margins” may tip in Newt’s favor just enough to give him the nod (if he doesn’t ruin it with some undisciplined remark.) If Romney continues to sweat and squirm and equivocate the way he did with Brett Baer, I think we’ll see his numbers continue to slide. I was shocked at his dismal performance. How on earth has he not developed a better answer for the flip-flop charge, for heaven’s sake? It’s only the one giant flaw everyone has been talking about for years. That’s what the base hates about him. I used to think it was the Mormon thing, but that’s not it. Its the in-authenticity. Romney is so damn phony, and approximately 75% of them can’t stand it enough to hold their nose and vote for him. Perhaps Newt will overreach and scare them away, but I don’t think any rehashing of Gingrich’s flaws will matter – those flaws have all been hashed and hashed again. Unlike the other previous not-Romney candidates, Gingrich is a known quantity. The base ran out of “others” and they came back to Gingrich.

  • Shane

    @khaki,

    I agree that Gingrich is more known than the other candidates, but I think it is worth remembering that he hasn’t held office for 12 years. There are a group of young voters that were alive, but not really paying attention to politics that will have to rediscover Newt and his career. All voters will also hash his last 12 years out of office as well. I think there is a real possibility that the American voting public will be reminded of what we thought of him in 1999. His 84 ethics violations, 300K fine and house vote of 395-28 to reprimand as the house speaker isn’t really making it to the forefront of the discussion yet. If he gets to the general election, it will be front and center as Obama hits him with example after example of big business and corrupt politics.

  • cranky critter

    Selection bias, khaki. Wonks think Newt is the epitome of the known quantity. They seem to be joining the media in presuming that everyone else must know him because they do. Ask 100% people in the street about Newt Gingrich, and discover how little ordinary people pay attention to political minutiae.

    The open question is whether Gingrich will be defined more by the persona he has on display in the debates, or by the screeching reviews of his amply documented flaws in attack ads. My gut says that there is a good chance that Romney can blow this because the public appetite is for someone who portrays authenticity and genuine bluntness, which Gingrich is doing.

    My prediction is always that time will tell, but if I had to guess, think that Gingrich has legs, but will ultimately be dragged down by the combined weight of his past, his tremendous ego, and his propensity to eventually hang himself when given enough rope.

  • Tully

    Or, you know, any rope at all.

  • khaki

    @ Shane: “There are a group of young voters that were alive, but not really paying attention to politics that will have to rediscover Newt and his career.”

    Young primary voters who fit this demo have gotten their introduction to Newt in the soft glow of Fox News where he’s been a “punditate” (as Jon Stewart puts it) for years now. Also, I marvel at how GOP candidates can morph liabilities in their histories into assets simply by pointing out that “Liberal” media reports on it. I haven’t seen any evidence yet that Gingerich’s past failures are hurting him . The only potential threat I see to his nomination is his own mouth/ego/rope in hand. His recent comment “Palestine is made up” is a taste, but that may not have been enough to hurt him. Most telling in last nights’ debate was his comment that he was speaking as a “historian”, and Romney parried that he failed to recognize that he is now a candidate for President. I thought that was the best advice Gingerich could have gotten: stop being a historian and start being a Presidential candidate. If he gets that (not saying he will), then I think the nomination is his (not saying he actually wants it). I think the base is holding their breath hoping he “gets it” and steps up to the task.

  • cranky critter

    IMO the only negative about Gingrich’s comments on Palestine is that they were impolitic. Undiplomatic, but not inaccurate. That raises the “bug or feature” question.

    His supporters like this. Anyone who dislikes Romney and complains about the liberal media will like it. Maybe just maybe, this time Newt Gingrich is a losse cannon like a fox.

  • khaki

    cc – Totally agree.