Gallup: Indies Back Romney Above Obama 45% to 39%

Gallup: Indies Back Romney Above Obama 45% to 39%


That’s the big news in the first daily tracking poll Gallup has put out. Why? Because when you look at Dems and Repubs, the support is exactly the same…

Of note…this is a swing from last time these numbers were collected…

This initial report is based on interviews with 2,265 registered voters, and highlights the potential closeness of this year’s race, with Romney and Obama essentially in a statistical tie. Gallup’s previous general election trial heat, from a national poll conducted March 25-26, showed Obama with a slight 49% to 45% lead over Romney.

More as it develops…

  • mw

    This is surprising. It seems like a bit of outlier, as most of the polls I’ve seem up to now showed Obama with a modest but statistically meaningful lead. We need to see some other polls back this one up before putting much weight on it.

    If it does hold up, I think it shows that Obama campaign strategy of pandering to the base, doubling down on progressive rhetoric, and embracing the “Occupy” framing is just flat not working. They’ve got plenty of time to turn the ship around, but if they stay on this tack they will lose the Indy’s and lose the election.

    The problem he has with independents is that they just don’t believe he is the least bit serious about taking on and tackling the out of control spending and deficits. The “Buffet Rule” is a case in point. It’s great for political pandering to fire up the people who are going to vote for him anyway. But is such cynical hackery and a transparently non-serious response to the real financial problems that face us, it it backfires with the centrist/independent swing vote that want the real problem solved.

    Independents would probably support the Buffet Rule if it was part of a real solution to the real problem.

    This is how Obama could win this going away: He should take the Buffet Rule, bundle it up with some version of Simpson-Bowles that provided a comprehensive solution to our unsustainable spending, tell Reid to put it on the floor for a debate, and then went on the campaign trail saying: “This is too important to wait until after the election or a lame duck session. We are going to talk about this everyday until Republicans and Democrats come up with a compromise that solves the problem.”

    He has to run against Congress. He has to run against both Democrats and Republicans in Congress. He has to make independents believe that he is serious about dealing with spending and deficits. The fact is, he has given them no reason to believe he is the least bit serious about the problem up to now. Just a lot of empty rhetoric. If he does not change that, he loses.

  • Tom Nicholson

    Seems its a bit early to tell how things are going to go. Presidential campaigns have so many twists and turns, polls like that have to be taken with a grain of salt.

  • mdgeorge

    @mw: Your analysis seems to directly counter the other poll on the front page, showing 66% independent support for the Buffett rule:

  • Kurt

    I do like the data, but it is way too hard to tell. So much that can go on now and then.

    The 2008 race was a close one until the economy and the banking industry took one of the worst beatings in history in Sep 2008

  • Stooped

    Perhaps it’s because the democrats have not passed a budget in all 3years Obama has been president.

    Sorta the way it works is simple. House passes a budget and sends it to the Senate. There the Senate passes their own budget and then send it back to the house and then they negotiate until they have a budget.

    Rather then spending 3 years screaming the right is EVIL and not passing a budget.

    Our government right now is like a really nasty relationship of a couple who are trying to out do each other in punishing the other side of the relationship. Sort of like the movie “War of the Roses.”

    As a result the indies Who are not IDEALOGY driven are thoroughly disappointed by Obama’s inability to actually deliver on promises to unite and not continue to divide the country.