Obama Leads In Majority Of National Polls

Obama Leads In Majority Of National Polls


Nate Silver pulls together the new national numbers…

So this definitely puts a wrinkle in the Romney narrative about winning the popular vote, but not the electoral. Of course that was a silly notion to begin with, but I’ve been seeing it all over Facebook and Twitter, as I’m sure you have too.

Okay, so what does Silver’s model have Obama vs. Romney ending up with on popular vote percentages? 50.5% vs. 48.5% respectively. Not a huge spread, and not like the 52.9% vs. 45.7% clock-cleaning Obama delivered against McCain. But let’s take a walk down memory lane and revisit Bush vs. Kerry…

What was the popular vote spread? 50.7% vs 48.3%.

And that was an election where people thought that the Dem turnout would be much higher than the Repub turnout given that Dems were angry with Bush. But Bush had a superior ground game…and Obama has proven he has a pretty damn good one too. Also, Kerry wasn’t compelling…and neither is Romney. And both were branded as flip-floppers…and both are Massachusetts politicians.

Long story short, the parallels are pronounced in this election cycle, but we’ll see what shakes out on Tuesday.

  • EndthePain

    Barak Obama to his supporters….


    I am not so sure that this wont be a landslide victory for Obama. It is very hard for the GOP to fight 75 major news organizations who fill the heads of nearly every american with Alinsky fodder against the GOP.

    Just yesterday a guy in Colorado told me that Romney was going to force retired people and mentally handicapped people off the rolls and force them to get a job.

    Women are going back to the 1700’s. We will shackle them all and put them in our basement if Romney is elected.

    Blacks will be strung up, tortured and put back in chains if Obama is NOT reelected.

    Hispanics will be thrown out of the country enmasse if Romney is elected.

    The Hugo Chavez MSM filled with communists who graduated from the Columbia school of journalism has done a fine job of painting Bush a war monger and Romney a draconian women beater and ethnic cleanser.

    It is true…..While the right stood idly by the left infiltrated schools, universities and unions and have begun brainwashing our children from cradle to grave.

    The MSM is aiding them and as Lenin stated many times……..

    The press should be not only a collective propagandist and a collective agitator, but also a collective organizer of the masses.
    Vladimir Lenin

    If America is actually paying attention and actually gives a @#$% then Romney will win…if the MSM has done their job then Obama will win in another landslide.

  • mdgeorge

    Just want to say that I do not believe (nor have I heard) any of the bull puckey that you claim the media is feeding me, but nevertheless, I do support Obama. Just wanted to let you know that it’s possible that people will vote for Obama for good reasons, and not just Lenin style propaganda.

  • Angela

    Both candidates have positives and negatives. However, I’ve been a little put off by Romney’s style and method of campaigning. His rhetoric is not always true to who he is, but rather adjusts to what he thinks voters want to hear. At times he takes a hard stance on an issue, but when questioned further later on, he changes somewhat and restates his position in such a way that I get the feeling I’ve been mislead. I don’t dislike Romney as a presidential choice, but I think those in charge of his campaign underestimate the intelligence of the voting population.

  • EndthePain

    Gallup 49-48 Romney….
    Rasmussen 49-48 Romney…

    I would remind everyone that in 2010 there was a wave election. That many Democrats registered as Republicans and threw out the Democrats in places like OHIO. That many independents threw out Democrats in 2010 as registered Republicans. In fact the rolls for the GOP swelled in 2010 while the Democrat rolls declined.

    No problem. EXCEPT…..in 2012 you vote according to your 2010 registration UNLESS you bothered to change your registration between 2010 and 2012….Court house data shows little of that.

    Hence all those early voters who are Republicans could actually be democrats who switched to vote out DEMS thus why we are seeing an increase in REPUB early voting and WHY we are seeing a decline in DEM early voting.

    In addition there are many states who have this same policy in effect and 2010 was a wave election.

    The right says that the lefts polls are skewed….and example of this is CNN which had it tied yesterday yet…..

    11 percent more democrats then republicans were included in the poll….meaning the Dems have to turn out 11 percent more then the GOP in order to just tie the election.

    ABC had Obama up by 3 with an 8 percent Democrat advantage.

    I sense that Rassmussen and Gallup have it right….1-2 percent in Romneys favor because their democratic sample is 4 percent Dems which most people believe is even too high.

    Addtionally Gallup has the affiliation of GOV vs Democrats favoring the GOP by plus one.

    If that is correct then Romney landslides….if the polling is accurate then I think Obama can squeak out a win in the electoral college.

    A very challenging election for everyone today.

  • cranky critter

    I love the evergreen “if my side loses it proves people are idiots” bullshine. That one just never gets old, does it?

  • Angela

    My frustration is this: There never seems to be a candidate that I can put myself behind. There isn’t anyone to represent me. Sure, no candidate for office can have positions that align with your own 100%. But the positions that politicians take these days, the solutions they think they have, are too extreme and seem to follow an ideological agenda, not to mention their large monetary supporters agenda. We definitely need campaign reform and election reform.