So this definitely puts a wrinkle in the Romney narrative about winning the popular vote, but not the electoral. Of course that was a silly notion to begin with, but I’ve been seeing it all over Facebook and Twitter, as I’m sure you have too.
Okay, so what does Silver’s model have Obama vs. Romney ending up with on popular vote percentages? 50.5% vs. 48.5% respectively. Not a huge spread, and not like the 52.9% vs. 45.7% clock-cleaning Obama delivered against McCain. But let’s take a walk down memory lane and revisit Bush vs. Kerry…
What was the popular vote spread? 50.7% vs 48.3%.
And that was an election where people thought that the Dem turnout would be much higher than the Repub turnout given that Dems were angry with Bush. But Bush had a superior ground game…and Obama has proven he has a pretty damn good one too. Also, Kerry wasn’t compelling…and neither is Romney. And both were branded as flip-floppers…and both are Massachusetts politicians.
Long story short, the parallels are pronounced in this election cycle, but we’ll see what shakes out on Tuesday.