Notebooks to dominate world PC sales by 2011
Notebooks will account for more than half of all PC shipments by 2011, according to a new report by IDC. The days of desktop PC domination seem to be numbered.
In many ways this would be hardly surprising. Notebooks take up much less space than desktops, they’re portable, and given their relatively low cost compared to a few years ago, you can just buy a new one when you decide you want to upgrade.
According to IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly PC Tracker, 2006 fourth quarter worldwide PC were up 7.3% from a year ago to 64.7 million units. On an annual basis, 2006 worldwide PC shipments reached 227.7 million units with growth of 9.5% – desktop volumes were up just 2% over 2005, while portable (ie notebook) volumes were up 26.3% over 2005.
IDC is tipping that while the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of desktops will be just 3.8% from 2006 to 2011, portable PC shipments will maintain a CAGR of 16.1% over the same period. By 2011 more than half of all client PCs sold wordwide will be portables.
“In the United States, portable PC shipments will maintain double-digit growth through 2010, but this shift to mobility will not be enough to offset reduced demand for desktops,” said Doug Bell, analyst in IDC’s Personal Computing program.
“The outlook is valid for both consumer and commercial segments, creating mid-single digit growth for the entire market, peaking in 2008. However, the release of Vista and a desktop refresh will create some growth opportunity in late 2007 and early 2008, before resuming a declining growth trend in the out-years.”
IDC is also tipping that emerging markets will also play an important role in worldwide PC sales. Asia/Pacific (excluding Japan) and the rest of the world (including Latin America, Canada, Central and Eastern Europe, the Middle East, and Africa) represented more than 50% of Desktop PC shipments in 2006 and will represent more than 50% of all worldwide PC shipments in 2011.
“Slower growth in desktops and in relatively mature regions changes the market dynamics a bit,” said Loren Loverde, director of IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly PC Tracker.
“A strong portable offering is becoming more important, and while local players have a larger share of international markets, the shift to portables will favor the largest players. Portables are picking up some of the slack from desktops and will benefit from improved security, power management, and new designs supported by Vista. While more replacements and Vista adoption may provide a brief respite for desktops in 2008, essentially all desktop growth will occur in emerging regions.”
While the desktop computer won’t disappear tomorrow, if this report is right, in the not too distant future it’ll have to share equal footing with the once niche notebook.
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