Industry insider: iPhone is a disaster

June 9, 2007

Industry insider: iPhone is a disaster Even as industry sources leak the news that 3 million iPhones will be ready for sale at launch, doubts are starting to surface that the iPhone will be as popular as it is widely expected to be.

Two sources, speaking to Peter Burrows at Business Week, revealed that Apple plans to have 3 million iPhones ready to sell in the US on June 29. Both Apple and US distributor AT&T have received more than 1 million iPhone-related inquiries each.

According to Burrow, analysts are predicting the Apple will sell around 3 million units this year (Apple hopes to sell 5 million) and 10 to 12 million in 2008 (Apple hopes to sell 15 million).

However, analysts, such as Piper Jaffray’s Gene Munster, predict that iPhone sales will really start making headway in 2009 when it’s likely that Apple will have launched low-cost iPhone variants, made deals with carriers to offer high-speed Internet access, as well as moved into overseas markets. Munster predicts iPhone sales of more than 40 million in 2009.

However, even as Burrows paints an upbeat picture of iPhone prospects in his article, he also raises some doubts:

“And with its touch-screen keyboard, powerful battery-sapping processors, and a panoply of new applications, the iPhone is far more complex than the iPod. Glitches could lead to costly recalls and returns if buyers find the phone buggy or confusing.”

These doubts are echoed by iPhone-skeptic John Dvorak, who believes the iPhone will be will be popular in the short-term, but then go out of fashion. He’s not convinced that Apple can jump into the “deep end of the mobile-phone swimming pool without knowing how to swim”.

Dvorak also predicts that there will be inevitable iPhone production flaws, that he hopes won’t be catastrophic.

More worryingly, an anonymous ”industry insider” told Dvorak that the iPhone keyboard is way too difficult to use.

“The keyboard is a disaster, and people are going to return the phone in droves. I’m guessing 20% will go back,” the source told Dvorak.

Never has the world seen a gadget as anticipated as the iPhone; it’s almost gotten to the point where everyone believes that the iPhone will be a major success. At the same time, the iPhone design is a radical departure from conventional mobile phones — a design that obviously has yet to be proven. This could of course make the iPhone a smash hit, or be the root of its downfall.

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9 Responses to “Industry insider: iPhone is a disaster”

  1. fog city dave:

    Wow. So, what you’re saying is that the iPhone will either be a success or a failure. Very insightful. Thank you.

  2. z:

    does anyone still listen to Dvorak?… I cant think of one thing he’s called correctly in the past few years. His utter hatred of anything apple or anything that threatens Microsoft makes him and whatever he says irrelevant. Or any I wrong?

  3. z:

    does anyone still listen to Dvorak?… I cant think of one thing he’s called correctly in the past few years. His utter hatred of anything apple or anything that threatens Microsoft makes him and whatever he says irrelevant. Or am I wrong?

  4. Humeid:

    And i guess mr anonymous tried the phone and he is even bored from its keyboard and he is know that as a fact, he maybe even got his hands on the phone before steve jobs!!!! very sad

  5. Jonathan:

    I have some important information for all that want the iphone. A guy went to my school to advertize the iphone. The iphone by the the way looks very but very impressive. The screen looks like its made of glass not like any other phone. The features are great too. One thing he did mention was that he himself found 23 glitches as he was using it. He did advised us to buy one 6 months after but he also said they were going to be a limited number. I really dont mind the glitches as long as they update it soon and fix it. I still hope to be one of the first orders online.. But i just needed to give this info out so all of you would know.

  6. Andy:

    So who is this “industry insider” that thinks Apple’s iPhone is a disaster? John Dvorak? Seriously?

    “The Macintosh uses an experimental pointing device called a ‘mouse’. There is no evidence that people want to use these things.”
    -John C. Dvorak, Feb 1984

    “The Noisiest buzz in the industry lately has been over the emerging use of cable TV systems to provide fast network data transmissions using a device called a cable modem. But the likelihood of this technology succeeding is zilch.”

    -John C. Dvorak, Sep 1995

    “Folks, the Mac platform is through — totally — and this may be the last, if not the next to last, Mac show”

    -John C. Dvorak, Jan 1998

  7. osisbs:

    Microsoft cancelled release of its phone because the instruction manuals weighed 38 pounds and were too large to fit on a single CD Rom. In fact, the hard drive for the device wouldn’t even hold it. Also, the briefcase holding the giant keyboard with 12 F keys made using it in a car unwise. It worked very well in convertibles as it would not rub on the roof.
    The guys at Microsoft decided to just sell some stock and buy iPhones for the whole crew and stick to dumping their crap into public schools as per Gates.

  8. Rob Walch:

    “According to Burrow, analysts are predicting the Apple will sell around 3 million units this year (Apple hopes to sell 5 million) and 10 to 12 million in 2008 (Apple hopes to sell 15 million).”

    Please at least get your facts straight. Steve Jobs has said he hopes to sell 10 Million units total by the end of 2008. Which is well below the 20 Million you indicate and below every analysts expectations.

    Regards,

    Rob W
    host of Today in iPhone Podcast

    http://www.todayiniphone.com

  9. t wolf:

    the macintosh uses an experimental pointing device
    called a “mouse”,there is no evidence that people want to use these things-John Dvorak feb 1984
    it is quite obvious to me that John is not credible
    as a expert and most obviously has no Zeitgeist
    Apple Computer is most certainly a 21st century
    company and like many experts wearing a suit and
    tie comes off like any yahoo who learned a few
    college words

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