HD-DVD vs Blu-ray camps both try to woo Warner Brothers to exclusivity
By Sean P. Aune
Warner Brothers, the last film studio to support both HD-DVD and Blu-ray at the same time, may become one of the biggest deciding factors in the high definition format war.
While every other studio has chosen one format over the other, Warner Brothers has continued to release its films in both forms. All of that may change by January 7th when the Consumer Electronics Show (CES) kicks off.
Rumors are circulating that both HD camps have been courting the executives of the WB studio, trying to woo them to one side or the other. As things stand, Sony’s Blu-ray camp controls 49% of the market with exclusive studio deals. If they find a way to sway the studio to their side, this would give them 70% of the titles in the market, effectively leaving HD-DVD to curl up and die without enough supply of fresh films for the players.
If HD-DVD wins the fight for the studio that gave us Bugs Bunny, then we’ll see the fight evenly split at nearly 50% of the titles out there going to each side. This could serve to prolong the war even longer.
Apparently Warner Brothers would like to wait out the holiday season to see which format sells the most players, giving them a larger installed base of consumers to sell their software to. According to Business Week, by the end of the year there should be 578,000 HD-DVD players in the marketplace compared with 370,000 Blu-ray systems. Where things get sticky is the 4 million Playstation 3’s out there that can play Blu-ray. Some reports have said only about 40% of those with a PS3 have bought a Blu-ray movie, but that would still be an additional 1.2 million units.
The war increased greatly this past August when Paramount and Dreamworks SKG announced they were going HD-DVD only. However, their deal involved a payment of $150 million and only lasts for 18 months. If the Warner Brothers deal was to go the way of Blu-ray, it seems a reasonable expectation that come February 2009, those studios would dump HD-DVD, killing the format all together.
Just when it looks like the war may be calming down, someone else fires off a cannon.
Related:
Entry was posted
on Friday, December 7th, 2007 at 3:40 pm
under 
Print This Post
Read more entries by Sean P. Aune.
Stumble It!
December 7th, 2007
“Where things get sticky is the 4 million PlayStation 3’s”
That’s actually now 6.7m PS3’s and currently rising by 1m a month. By the end of March next year its likely to be 11m PS3’s. HD-DVD is losing badly.
December 7th, 2007
@Brad
Your 5 million total is completely off base, as is everything else you say in your post. The total is around 6.7 million (http://www.vgchartz.com/). Also the PS3 is selling only slightly worse than the xbox 360 in it’s first year, and the 360 had no competition. (http://vgchartz.com/hwlaunch.php) You can also see dreamcast sales on that second link and compare. Man, vgchartz is making you look bad. Let me guess, you’ll try to knock their credibility next and say they’re off by nearly 2 million consoles.
I still can’t believe people are using the porn industry as a reason HD DVD has an advantage, maybe with VHS but certainly not HD right now, it has little to no impact. Can you say you’ve seen a single news story about how its swaying the hearts and minds of people towards HD DVD, or any sales figures? Maybe if porn was still hard to come by for home use like it was with VHS, you might actually have a point fanboy.
And as for director support goes, does it really matter much? It’s all about the studios, and Blu-ray has alot more support. All it will take is Warner blu-ray exclusivity and it’s over.
While I still believe the 360 is a better gaming console right now, you can’t deny the fact the ps3 has played a huge part in why blu-ray is dominating sales around the globe.
December 7th, 2007
I can see it now. Blu-ray players outsell HD-DVD players 10:1 and Blu-ray movies outsell HD-DVD’s 3:1 by January, but Warner Brothers decides to go HD-DVD exclusive. Then we all find out that M$ paid Warner Bros. 2 billion dollars to go HD-DVD exclusive. Who wants to place bets?
December 8th, 2007
@Nick
No, my 5 million is not ff base, the 6.7 million figure is total distributed (to stores) … doesn’t mean they’ve sold!!! It’s actually just under 6 million so perhaps i’d be more fair by saying 6 not 5 million! As far as comparing to the dreamcast, well it’s the closest I can compare it to, perhaps the gamecube but I don’t know how well that sold! The fact is if the PS3 doesn’t sell half as well the PS2 then it is seen as a failure because of the high bar Sony has set.
If porn is so hard to come by why does it still sell in its millions on the DVD format? I know I found it hard to believe too but it does account for a lot of DVD sales, we will see if this trend continues on the HD format.
Director support counts a lot because studios listen to them … hence why Stephen Spielberg’s films are excusive Bluray even though they are produced by an HD-DVD exclusive studio (they weren’t included in the deal i think).
I’d rather you didn’t call me a fanboy because I actually don’t prefer either … I have an HD-DVD player with 1080p tv and am unimpressed! I embrace the digital downloading age and think this war is both pointless and too costly on the consumer! Also, my local HMV and Virgin both had more titles on HD-DVD than on Bluray (only by a couple).
Yes, I can’t deny the PS3 has a an enormous influence on this format war but the thing is, it’s the only Bluray player that’s selling very well. I believe we’re on a knife edge, if Warner were to HD-DVD and the Wii to continue outselling the PS3 the way it is then that presents a problem for Sony.
As a side note you can directly compare the PS3 sales with Wii’s for one reason, when you ask a lot of people if they are going to buy a second console most say ‘no’. When asked what they would have bought if the Wii didn’t excist they usually prefer the PS3 to 360. Now in my book that means the Wii is stopping people buying the PS3, Sony need to get people to buy both, I think the price cuts are helping a lot but as we all know the second year for a console is very important, let’s hope we see some better titles!
December 8th, 2007
@Brad
Did you go and even look at that site?
Vgchartz.com uses data from retailers and other sources to get the numbers of consoles SOLD, not shipped. They are a free version of the same data NPD gives of consoles and software SOLD. I’m not arguing with you again since that’s completely over your head I guess.
December 8th, 2007
You know, that alleged payout to Paramount/Dreamworks was never confirmed. It can be sourced to only 1 analyst’s quote in the New York Times. If that’s not questionable and unreliable, I don’t know what is. Anyway, referring to it as fact makes you look like a sony fanboy.
December 8th, 2007
Currently neither format offers a portable unit. The first format to offer a portable unit with a low cost of entry may be the big winner. Time will tell.
Summer
http://www.blu-ray-hd-movies.com
December 9th, 2007
Blu-ray is almost entirely a game console format.
They are just piling up sales in the wrong market.
HD DVD are heading at the right market, the adult a/v mass market.
Blu-ray & PS3 is just the new UMD & PSP with a little PC activity and a relative handful of stand-alones tacked on.
December 11th, 2007
If you go Blu Ray then you are an idiot. I bought a thousand dollar Blu Ray player that takes 5 minutes to start a movie on and can only get Firm Ware updates via a DVD disk. Yeah I put that player on the TV upstairs that gets used like never.
I now use my new Toshiba HD DVD player that gets updates automatically via the internet that “IT’S CONNECTED TOO”, as well when I pop in a disc it’s up and running in seconds.
Looks the same, has great interactive extras, connects to the internet. HD DVD all the way!
December 20th, 2007
@MrLurp
No, apparently it’s just that you made a poor purchase. I wouldn’t pay $1000 for either format. I JUST bought a Samsung Blu-ray for $279 and it loads discs within 10 seconds. It “connects to the internet” also, or you can upgrade the firmware using a cd-r/dvd-r.
“Looks great, has great interactive extras, connects to the internet. You’re an idiot all the way!”
January 3rd, 2008
Economics will decide this contest, not which is technically superior. Regardless of the recent drop in Blu-ray prices, Hd-DVD have dropped as well with players now down to around $99 - $179 range. HD-DVD’s are cheaper to produce and have a highre profit margin for the manufacturer, as oppossed to BR whoch requires substantial retooling of manufacturing facilities. Also, the more acute angular position of the laser, while allowing for more data, also is a production nightmare with over a 60% rejection rate at QA checkpoints.
And sure Blu-Ray sports more Movie Studios than HD, but what most overlook is that Microsoft and Intel are backing HD-DVD, not to mention HP and NEC. With Microsoft pushing this, you can bet your retirement that HD-DVD will be the winner. They have mearly to write a check out of petty cash to buy off any of the Big Studios, and they will if it comes to it. Bet on it.
C’mon guys if they can push WINDOWS into the dominate OS, practically running the planet now, then making HD-DVD the dominant HD video format will be a piece of cake!
Dont say you werent warned.
January 4th, 2008
I think it’s definitely in Warner Brothers’ (and indeed the whole film industries) best interests for there to be a quick resolution to the format wars. Until this happens neither format can really take off big time.
There are some who argue they should support both formats and hence pick up extra sales. Sure, in the very short term they can make a few extra bucks that way. However, the real prize is high volume sales once one or other format is victorious and becomes a mass market success.
There can be no doubt, given both the higher disk capacity and data transfer rate that can be achieved, that Blu-ray is technically superior to HD-DVD. The potential for better menus and other interactive features is also higher with BD-J than HDi even if not exploited so far!
For the record, I have both a PS3 and an Xbox 360 with HD-DVD drive connected to a 52” 1080p LCD TV. As an all round home entertainment system I think the PS3 wins massively over the Xbox. Style wise there’s no contest and, unlike the noisy Xbox, the PS3 is quiet and makes an excellent all round disk spinner. Nor is there a big question over its reliability (see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xbox_360_technical_problems). I also get a full 1080p feed instead of just 720p from the Xbox. In addition, I much prefer the home entertainment centre friendly menu system and on screen graphics of the PS3 to the in-yer-face garish gamer PC style menus of the Xbox. I even love the Bluetooth remote control (no more having to point the thing. You can even lock the PS3 away in a cupboard if you don’t want to see it – although I’d rather lock away the ungainly Xbox if I could - if only all TV’s and other kit would adopt Bluetooth as well!).
At the moment there are undoubtedly a few more really good games available on the Xbox but its early days for the PS3 – just wait another year or two until the games manufacturers really get to grips with its true potential and see if the scales aren’t tipped again! Even if not, it’s the disk format, not the games consol, I’m interested in. If Microsoft introduced Blu-ray drives for the Xbox, I might be converted back – otherwise not a chance!
Unfortunately, it seems likely Bill is about to announce the introduction of the Xbox 360 Ultimate with inbuilt HD-DVD drive and HDMI output. That seems too little too late to me. Most hard-core gamers will already have a 360 and only a very few of the most die-hard techno-freaks will bother upgrading. It is, therefore, an attempt to gain new adopters for HD-DVD and prolong this format war to the detriment of every one else.
No doubt it would benefit Microsoft if both formats failed and left greatest scope for their downloading alternative. The problem with that outcome is that the network bandwidth (not to mention hard disk space) simply doesn’t exist for large numbers of consumers to download full HighDef material. At best we will get 1080i with Dolby 5.1 and miss out on the best quality pictures and lossless sound encoding together with all the other lovely extra features. If that’s the way you want your movies then don’t worry, you’ll get your wish with or without a victor in the disk format war so no need to muddy the water by trying to keep both going!
I live in Britain and walking round the shops I see 3 times the shelf space for Blu-ray titles over HD-DVD. If you include PS3’s (which are brilliant Blu-ray players), there are about 3 to 4 times the numbers of Blu-ray players out there in the world compared to HD-DVD despite the fact that format has been around for rather longer. I rather suspect too that HD-DVD is all but nonexistent in Japan. There is also a preponderance of film studios and hardware manufacturers supporting Blu-ray over HD-DVD. In addition, at the time of writing, the top 18 HD disk sales slots are all Blu-ray (http://www.eproductwars.com/dvd/top.cfm?db=dvd) – HD-DVD’s top slot is a lowly 19th place!
In short, there is no hope that HD-DVD can win the format war. At best it can simply hold back the HighDef revolution for as long as it manages to survive and make Bill even more money from his downloading services. Better for everyone else that HD-DVD dies now. Although this may seem unfair to those who have already bought into HD-DVD (me included!) far better to do it now rather than leave it till far more people will have wasted their money on a doomed format. (It certainly is doomed since neither format can succeed while the other survives and all it can do is to doom both formats!)
If you are an Xbox game fanatic then I sincerely wish you great joy with your Xbox. I implore you, though, don’t use your love of the Xbox to try and force HD-DVD on the rest of us who really love movies. Indeed you could write to Bill and ask him to kindly include Blu-ray support in the Xbox’s next firmware release!!
Please, please, please Warner Brothers, help bring this format war to an early end by dropping support for HD-DVD. There can then be a clear winner and we can all get on and enjoy a real HighDef entertainment future with huge sales potential for you, the rest of the film industry and other hardware manufactures. Once successful, economies of scale will also force down unit prices for both hardware and software to end users. There is, therefore, so much, so many can gain from a speedy and decisive Blu-ray victory.
While so long as HD-DVD survives, however, only Bill gains and every-one else loses!