Your analysis doesn’t seem “obvious” to me at all, as iTunes reportedly accounts for about 25-to-30% of Audible’s revenue. Is Amazon going to buy Audible and then drop their biggest customer?

Further, should Amazon “drop” Apple then Apple is likely to “drop” Audible support from iTunes and from future generations of iPods and iPhones, leaving Amazon with, well, no market whatsoever for its wares.

Be a great way to commit suicide.