HD DVD is dead – Now Blu ray needs to beat DVD and downloads
We all now know that the high definition DVD war is over, with Blu ray beating HD DVD over the head with a big stick until it died a very premature death. But that doesn’t exactly mean Blu ray is assured an easy ride as the format of the future. Before that happen, it’ll have to kill off DVD, and start battling downloads too.
This week saw the official end to the long running Blu ray Vs HD DVD war, with Toshiba finally abandoning the format after it became clear there was no future for it.
Whether big US retailers Netflix, Best Buy and Wal-Mart ditched the format after learning it was about to get dumped by its main backer, or Toshiba saw the writing on the wall as a result of decisions by companies such as this is unclear, but its happened nonetheless, and is all over bar the shouting.
So while HD DVD manufacturing starts to end, and remaining stocks get sold off at bargain prices, Blu ray should have it easy from now on right? Ermm no, because it still faces competition from the humble DVD, which isn’t losing any of its popularity as of yet, and movie downloads, which with broadband speeds ever increasing is surely the true future for film.
First of all DVD, you know, just those ordinary discs you have about 5000 of in your home. Prices have fallen massively over the past few years, and I’d venture to say that they have never been so popular as they are now.
While the early adopters of new technology have been fighting over whose got the better format, the vast majority of the population have been getting on with their lives, and continuing to buy normal DVDs.
Obviously there will come a time when the more ordinary consumer will start to think about future formats, but I can’t see it happening for some time yet.
Then there are downloads, both from the Internet and over on demand cable television. There’s no doubt in my mind that downloads are the true future, and will end up obliterating the need for any solid storage format, be that Blu ray, DVD, or HD DVD.
I can see a time when we all just have an entertainment hub in our living rooms, which contain a huge hard disc drive, and the capacity to synchronise with your television, games consoles and computers. And it’s not even that far in the future.
HD DVD may be dead, but is there an actual need for Blu ray when most people will stick with DVDs until downloads become the norm anyway?
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February 17th, 2008
A couple of things wrong with your thinking. First off, SD DVD though still the format seeing the most sales, it is being reported that sales are starting to grow sluggish. A lot of that may have to do with people seeing the HD versions of films on their HD displays, and no longer being satisfied with SD DVD. The slly format war should never have happened. Thank God it is over! Now we can move on. As to Digital Downloads. Don’t hold your breath! A lot of things are working against that ever being a viable system for the public at large. First off, the success of SD DVD happened because of people having the desire to own a physical medium in their hands. A library of film. With DD, there is a lot of question about what you would be purchasing. While a studio may have no problem selling you a physical disc with encryption intact, it may have a huge problem selling you a downloadable version that could be burned and distributed. The more likely scenario with DD is for renting, because you are likely going to only be allowed one or two viewings before it becomes locked, and you have to re-rent it again to view it. Not the same as owning. Next comes the problem of downloading it, a n HD flick, one that does not compromise HD picture quality and sound, is going to run between 25 gig on up… that is a lot of downloading time… unless they plan on sacrificing picture quality, or sound quality, or both… and I do believe they would… The whole move to a new standard is about getting the ideal picture and sound DD would likely sacrifice both.
Lastly is storage. You’ll need a free 30 gig or more on your drive to handle one movie. What if you actually could keep the movie or wanted to? Where will you store an entire library? I personally own over 1300 DVD’s, a little over 200 of them on Blu-Ray. To store those on hard drives would be quite expensive, and frankly, I don’t want to have to fire up a computer to watch a movie when I can slide a disc into a slot.
Even if the drive was say some type of TIVO type of storage device, you’d need an array of them to hold your entire library if you’re a collector like me.
And what happens when hard drives fail? Are you expected to repurchase the library again?
This is not something workable for the average consumer who wants a convenient method of buying and storing a library. for that type of consumer, a physical media is neccessary.
Rentals are a different matter. I can see DD succeeding for rentals. A slight sacrifice in picture quality would be acceptable for someone paying a small rental fee for a one time viewing.
The hardest part of HD succeeding at this point is getting the masses to give up their standard DVDs. Once that happens, (and it will as they purchase the HD sets and see the huge difference in picture and sound) Blu-Ray will be the standard for a number of years to come….
February 17th, 2008
MJD, why don’t you apply for a job on the website? Or how about you don’t write comments that are fucking 538 words long. Or you could try staying on topic.. Typically, I doubt most Blu-Ray adopters have 200 Blu-Ray discs. But.. I’m sure you have the necessary credentials to make these assumptions…
February 17th, 2008
I’ve been an early adopter of new tech for my adult life. I’m on my third HD television. I had VHS and Beta players as soon as they came out. Ditto Laserdisk, Dolby Digital etc…I wised up and waited for the final DVD spec to be ratified. Got a second gen Toshiba the next day. Spent some time buying a few disks at the local Best Buy, as no rental service was available. Got back to the house, jumped on the Web and was immediately slammed in the face with the Circuit City Divx announcement. That little whorefest slowed DVD adoption to a major degree. I’m going to still sit out this latest and greatest for another year. I figure the disks and players will be cheaper. As far as the download prediction, I’m going to file it with the paperless office and the voice controlled computer. Always coming, never arriving.
February 17th, 2008
MJD, I concur with you 100% this is what this types of blogs and forums need people like you to teach them. DD movies still light years away from matching the sound and resolution quality of a blu-ray.
February 18th, 2008
Thanks Pablo. I think the more people know, the less they end up getting hurt, and not seeing enevitable results.
February 18th, 2008
Thanks for the kind words Todd, your mom did a good job raising you right, a real class act.
February 24th, 2008
I believe digital downloads will eventually win the “war”.The reason being is that it is portable.People seem to think of now & not thinking about the future.The is no rule about digital downloads being temporary.Same goes for sound & resolution-with the way technology advances do you really think digital downloads won’t advance? In the future, it is very likely that we will have personal websites that will store all our media/entertainment files with a personal login. So you can view/hear the files anywhere you can get internet access.You will also be able to send links of your files to family,friends,etc via email. I do something like this for my ebay customers who buy ebooks/pdf files from me.I believe that cds/dvds/blu-ray will be obsolete in the future because all info will be accessed online.
March 31st, 2008
Most movies are sold around christmas. Pretty hard to wrap up a download in a bow and put it under a tree.
April 15th, 2008
Steve Mumford:
and what happens if you have ALL your media on- line but NO access to a TERMINAL???
having a PHYSICAL media will ALWAYS be the most practical way for “quick access” anytime wants to view its own movies ANYTIME.
February 19th, 2009
I want my films on SD cards.
December 1st, 2011
Thanks for the info, but I can’t import to the server and the message like this