The death of Blu-ray? – Expert predicts downloads are the future
By Dave Parrack
HD DVD is long dead, but we shouldn’t assume that means Blu-ray is the ultimate winner. In fact, it could already be nearing its end, being beaten by a combination of DVDs and digital downloads.
As soon as the HD DVD format was declared dead at the beginning of this year, everyone started congratulating Sony, and assuming that Blu-ray had the high definition format war in the bag. That may well be the case when it comes to physical discs, unless you believe the hype that the makers of HD VMD are trying to build up over their format, but that may not be where the true battle is destined to take place.
Soon after the demise of HD DVD, I wrote an article about how even though Blu-ray had killed off the first of its competitors, it would have a tougher time first getting rid of the normal, run of the mill DVD, and then trying to fight off the emergence of digital downloads as a serious contender.
And I’m not the only person to think so, as a person with a lot more knowledge on the subject has now come out and said the same thing.
According to t3 magazine, A chief scientist at audio bigwigs THX has predicted that Blu-ray is already a dead format walking, and we won’t be watching Blu-ray movies for very much longer.
In an interview with Home Cinema Choice magazine, he said:
“Personally, I think it’s too late for Blu-ray. I think consumers will only become interested in replacing DVD when HD movies become available on flash memory. Do we really need another spinning format?”
“In the future I want to be able to carry four to five movies around with me in a wallet, or walk into a store and have someone copy me a movie to a USB device.”
Blu-ray may well be selling in large enough quantities to please Sony, and destroy Toshiba’s hopes for HD DVD, but is it really gaining the widespread acceptance that a format or product needs to ensure its future?
The Playstation 3 is helping get Blu-ray in to the mainstream, but not everyone who buys a PS3 will be interested in Blu-ray, and even if they are, that’s still a tiny minority of the population.
I for one am sticking with DVD for now, as I have a huge collection, and personally think they look good enough that I don’t need to upgrade.
By the time high def is the standard, and people such as myself do start thinking about where to go next, Broadband speeds are liekly to be much faster than they are currently, and digital downloads will be a viable option.
There is always the argument over having a hard copy, which Jonathan wrote in depth about last month, but assuming that conundrum is worked out, it could be that Blu-ray offers too little too late to become anything more than a stopgap for those early adopters desperate to watch Transformers in all its glory.
Update: THX have contacted us and all of the other hundreds of sites who covered this story.
Graham McKenna, Manager of Global PR for THX said:
“Neither THX nor Mr. Fincham have ever declared that the Blu ray format is dead or is on the demise. Quite the contrary, THX is dedicated to supporting Blu-ray with many new technologies, certification programs and other initiatives. Mr. Fincham was simply discussing the future of movies on downloads, optical discs and other emerging media.”
Related:
Battle between physical media & downloads – Blu-ray dead man walking? Blu-ray dead within five years – DVD is simply good enough Apple founder Steve Wozniak predicts death of the iPod HD DVD is dead – Now Blu ray needs to beat DVD and downloads Music lovers still prefer CDs over digital downloads
Sign up for the BLORGE daily email newsletter Entry was posted on Sunday, March 30th, 2008 at 12:40 pm under
High Definition Formats, Internet, Opinion .
Read more entries by Dave Parrack.
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March 30th, 2008
theres no way that downloadable movies will beat blu-ray
March 30th, 2008
Digital downlaods are great for all of us who are fimiliar with the like. However, for the mainstream population evidence shows that adopting such different methods of watching videos is likely to be a failure. It’s much more simpler for people to pop in a disc than go online and download, store, organize and view such digital content. For those that are familiar with download media there’s no question its convient and applicable. However when it comes to a sucessful product we must look at the greater picture of what the mainstream understanding is towards a product.
March 30th, 2008
yea let me hook my 50 inch plasma to my computer. Not!! most people wont hook their tv up to a computer and it is ludacris to think they will unless you want to sit at a desk and watch 8 hours worth of movies on you pc monitor. downloads will never replace physical media and anyone who thinks as much is an idiot. yea let me take my usb stick full of movies everywhere I go. wait now I will have to strap my 50 incher to my back and carry it along as well.
plus its way to early to even get the bandwith required to watch or download an hd movie in a short amount of time,and its probably going to be compressed. I can go to blockbuster and back 50 times before one movie is ready to go. Wake up people, your missing a few bricks in your load
March 30th, 2008
I will never download my movies, I want a hard copy, one that I will not have to worry about losing if my Hard drive crashes. Plus one movie could be up to 50 GB of space, I dont know why people feel that downloads will kill blu-ray. I think the competition will be good though. If blu-ray was smart they would work to try and get out Star Wars or the Lord of the Rings so that many people on the fence will cross over.
March 30th, 2008
THX has disassociated itself from those comments and said that the scientists statements were a result of a “misunderstanding”. And I mean, USB pen for movie distribution? Is anyone other than this scientist even talking about it? – “THX recognizes the quality and benefits that the Blu-ray HD format brings to the home theater experience. We are dedicated to supporting Blu-ray with new THX technologies and other initiatives. At its very core, THX is about advancing the quality of the entertainment experience, whether that is on optical disc, downloads or other emerging media. I believe Mr. Fincham’s comments reflect that broader goal.” ( http://www.crunchgear.com/2008/03/26/blu-ray-is-not-dead-says-thx/ )
March 30th, 2008
I HAVE A PS3 & 1080p HDTV I download movies on my playstation 3 from joox.net all the movies i get are HDDVD & BLU-RAY FROM JOOX.net they come in like i bet them in BLU-RAY OR HDDVD
March 30th, 2008
i think everyones idea of plugging you 50inch tv to your pc is way off mark.ps3 and xbox 360 is already using streaming for movies and with the likes of apple and microsoft it will not be long (if not already in the works)that a set top box with ethernet or such and a hard drive will be streaming high def movies on a rental or buy status,
these boxes will also be able to transfer onto flash drives to play back on other devices such as ipods and personal players.and a personal 1 copy managed back up for all those who want a phisical medium in there hand,( a wallet full of flash films rather than a book full of dvd)
the only thing stopping this happening at the moment is finding protection for copyrights.
March 30th, 2008
Microsoft’s arguments for DRM in Vista was so that the user could watch Blu-ray and HD DVD on their cramped 19″ computer screen.
Since HD DVD is discontinued and most intelligent Blu-ray fans will buy a stand alone player for their HD monitor/HDTV. What possible “reason” is there for any DRM for Vista now? Why did Business and Basic editions of Vista even contain DRM?
Businesses will not suffer if they didn’t have the ability to watch the latest Blu-ray Hollywood Blockbuster on their 19″ monitors in the office…unless I am missing something here.
Basic Vista users, how many have you known actually installed a Blu-ray drive in their $399 laptop? And how well did the computer’s 512 MB RAM play the Blu-ray movie?
Hopefully Microsoft will wake up to the fact that it cannot serve Hollywood and its primary customers at the same time. Leave the DRM out of MSFT’s next OS, and the OS will likely be trouble free and HDTV fans will buy their own stand alone player for their HDTV. Everyone will be happy and maybe things will run a lot smoother the next time.
Blu-ray? I don’t own it as its too expensive. When the cost is below $100 for a stand alone player, I might consider it.
In the meantime regular “old fashioned..lol” DVD’s work just fine on my stand alone DVD players and on my XP computers.
Downloading HD movies from the web? I think a more viable option is to have high speed kiosks where one can purchase any Blu-ray movie they want for a good price and its already burned to the disc.
It could work like this, a person goes to a web site, order and pay for the movie, select the nearest kiosk go there to pick up the movie…custom made and custom burned.
The movie would play on any Blu-ray player. The kiosks would have T1 or FIOS so speed and the waiting times for it to download and burn should not be a problem.
It would solve problems of trying to download a HD movie at home and it only being able to play on that one computer. Much like one orders a pizza, which takes 1/2 hour to pickup after calling in a order.
March 30th, 2008
Stores are not likely to sell movies on small memory cards because they would be too easy to steal.
It’s true that digital mp3 downloads are killing CDs, but there is a couple of basic differences between a music album and a movie:
1) Most albums have 1 or 2 good songs and the rest are fillers; that’s why people prefer to pay $1 to download the only song they like instead of paying $15 for a physical copy of the entire album. Movies, on the other hand, are normally watched from beginning to end. Nobody is going to pay for and download just a chapter of the DVD.
2) Nobody I’ve ever met can hear the difference between a properly created mp3 file (let’s say, 256kbs, using the mp3 PRO codec) and the original CD. But everybody I’ve showed Hi-Def video (downloaded movie trailers) can see the advantage over DVD.
3) A couple of earplugs is all you need to enjoy music, but to truly enjoy movies, you need a big screen and a surround sound system. Showing Star Wars on a 3″ screen is not acceptable for me… I need at least a 29″ TV, or better yet, a front projection system. Ergo, movie media doesn’t need to be small.
So… even though I’ve downloaded movies myself, I truly think Blu-ray has a real opportunity if it acts QUICKLY. Prices of players must come under $200. The penetration of HDTV sets is no longer an issue: Everybody wants one for Christmas, or has already got one.
March 30th, 2008
I remember assloads of people explaining to me how DVD wouldn’t take off until it became recordable like VHS. Never mind the large majority of people had 12:00 flashing on their vcr because they never taped anything. The mistake is the same, thinking the new tech has to be the old tech+more.
Slap a wireless N in a TIVO and you’re halfway there. You don’t need to download the movie to watch it, just like you don’t need to download Monday Night Football to see it in High Def. Most people aren’t interested in keeping a movie, just watching it.
March 31st, 2008
I personally believe that digital downloads are the way of the future. And no, I’m not talking about downloading a crappy quality DivX rip from a torrent site and watching it on your 17″ computer monitor, or hooking your hdtv up to the PC. The future is set-top boxes with one, two, three, four hundred TB hard drives in them, where you browse a selection of titles on your TV, click “download”, and within minutes are watching. (Once the first part of your movie is ready, you begin watching, while the rest of the movie continues to download in the background). Your online account is charged automatically, and you just bought Transformers 2 in 1080p without having to throw on underwear and drive to Walmart. Every time you download a new movie, the history of that purchase is saved to your account. That way if at any point you erase it, or something happens to your HDD, you don’t have to pay to download it again. It will keep tabs on who has what, and will help prevent piracy, which is all that keeps such things from going mainstream in the first place. So yeah, anyway, Blu-ray WILL die. Maybe not today, tomorrow, or five years from now. But eventually it will be up in the attic next to your hd-dvd player, gathering dust, while you’re watching all of your newly purchased HD titles from your set-top box, no longer needing to get off the couch to put another bright, shiny disc into your player. Click, click, watch. Mark my words.
March 31st, 2008
mark my words! Ain’t gonna happen no way no how!!! it might be possible to say it will have a chance with the tech savy individual for a second but to the average consumer downloads will never replace physical media. forget blu ray and high def for a minute, downloads of movies that are not in highdef would have to kill DVD first, and if it was going to happen it already would have. so to say high def downloads will kill blu ray in my opinion is not even foreseeable. regular downloading of movies is still not even competing with physical DVD media. Until non high def movies downloading takes over physical DVD media then we can talk about the downloads and the death of blu ray.
March 31st, 2008
OK, lets’ look at the “Movie Download vs. Movie Disc” subject a little closer. We will dissect it in a way that will allow us to try and determine the future of the digital HD Movie Download.
These are some of the Freedoms that I am able to enjoy because I own a Blu-ray player (Playstation 3) and Blu-ray Disc collection:
I watched my Blackhawk Down Blu-ray about 8X during this past year. I watched my Pan’s Labyrinth Blu-ray 4X since it’s release. I watched the Simpson’s Movie on Christmas Night and then again last night, almost 4 weeks later, with my little cousin. I also let my brother borrow my 300 and 28 Weeks Later Blu-ray discs. My friend Mike let me borrow his Ghost Rider Blu-ray and I lent him my Casino Royale Blu-ray. I brought my TMNT Blu-ray to my friend Jay’s house to see how it looked on his new Samsung DLP flat screen and PS3. It looked and sounded amazing. I bought Pathfinder on Blu-ray for $29.99, watched it, then sold it on eBay for $26.00 + $2.00 shipping.
Ok, that’s what I’ve done with a few of my Blu-ray movies.
Now let’s look at the advantages and disadvantages of the Digital HD Movie Download:
1. Does the HD Movie Download allow me the same freedoms in portability that the Blu-Ray Disc does? No. You can only view a Downloaded movie on the device that it was downloaded to.
2. Can I borrow and Lend downloaded movies with friends and family? No. You would have to lend or borrow the whole device or console that holds the download.
3. Can I watch a Downloaded Movie numerous times over the course of a Year or the course of a month for that matter? No. Digital Download Movies are only good for a predetermined term or limited length of time. Usually 24 hours.
For example, Microsoft offers Digital Movie Downloads on their XBoxLIVE (XBL) service. The Downloadable movies vary in price on the XBL service. Movie Downloads from XBoxLIVE can be viewed an unlimited amount of times for the first 24 hours. Plays after that period will cost the same as the initial download. The downloaded Movie files are in Windows Media VideoHD (aka;VC-1,WMVHD) format at 720p resolution, 6.8Mbps video with 5.1 surround sound. The average Movie download is 4 – 5gb.
4. Are Digital downloadable Movies available in Full HD, 1080p with lossless Audio? No. Not yet. There is no date for the availability of full resolution Downloads.
The only advantage or benefit, that I can see, in Downloading Movies would be, it saves you a trip to the store. If you are home sick, the weather is bad, it’s after 10pm and all the Electronics stores are closed or you’re just feeling a little bit lazy, downloading a movie is fine.
To me, downloading a Movie is no different than purchasing a movie from your Pay-Per-View service. In some cases Pay-Per-View might even have more of an advantage because you don’t have to wait the download time and if you have TiVo you can watch it until you delete it. Pay-Per-View is also available in 1080i.
The DVD vs. VHS Comparison in relation to The Blu-ray vs. DVD Comparison:
Standard DVD replaced VHS, Blu-ray replaced DVD and Digital Downloads will replace Blu-ray, right? Wrong. Here is why:
While compiling information about a subject or subjects, in order to complete a proper hypothecation, you will need to make sure that the variables that you are using are in accordance with one another and can be related to one another.
So the question is, “Can we compare DVD’s replacement of VHS with Blu-ray’s replacement of Standard (STD) DVD?” The answer is No. DVD ultimately rendered the VHS Tape useless. Blu-ray is not replacing DVD or rendering the DVD format useless. Blu-ray is simply an expansion of DVD.
If you own a Full HD Home Theater with Blu-ray player, the Standard DVD format can and will be integrated into your Movie, Concert or VideoGame collection in some way. The standard DVD can not only be viewed using a Blu-ray player, but the STD DVD can be viewed at a higher resolution using a process that most Blu-ray players feature. This process is called upscaling.
VHS and DVD are in no way interchangeable, which was the reason for the subsequent discontinuation and elimination of VHS.
Not only are the STD DVD & VHS forms of media non-interchangeable with one another, but the gap in technology between DVD and VHS is far greater then the gap between Blu-ray and DVD. The reason there is such a large gap between DVD and VHS is that DVD is a completely different technology than VHS, where as Blu-ray evolved from DVD and is of the same technology.
Here’s another way to look at the DVD vs. VHS Comparison in relation to The Blu-ray vs. DVD Comparison:
1.What came first, the chicken (Blu-ray) or the egg (DVD)?
2.What came first, the chicken (Blu-ray) or the Elephant (VHS)? You can’t ask that question because it’s not relative to what we need the answer for.
This is why “The DVD vs. VHS Comparison in relation to The Blu-ray vs. DVD Comparison” cannot be used to determine an answer to our question, which is, Will Digital Downloadable Movies replace Disc media?
The Downloadable Movie vs. Downloadable Music comparison:
I think this is where analysts and columnists make their biggest mistake when trying to evaluate the future of digital media.
You can not compare downloading movies with downloading music. A full catalog of Music does not require a large amount of Hard Drive space. One single HD Movie with 1080p resolution, 7.1 lossless Audio and Bonus Features could, in some cases, require 20gb to over 50gb of space depending on the movie. Just think of how much space you would need to retain a downloaded version of the Godfather Box set in Full HD.
Music Downloads are portable via an MP3 device such as the IPod. Downloadable Movie content is not portable. HiDef Home Theaters are not portable either. Music Downloads are permanent and do not incur future costs on the owner. Movie downloads have a limited viewing time.
As a consumer, I do not want to spend money on a movie that I am only able to view for a limited time. In that case, I might as well go to the movie theater and get my money’s worth. I’d much rather order something from Pay-Per-View which I can TiVo. I want to watch my movies when & where I feel like watching them. I want to lend movies to my friends and family. I also want to borrow movies from my friends and family. To me, that is a small part of what makes owning a movie collection fun.
In my opinion, Movie Downloads is an option that is loaded with restrictions and costs to the consumer. Digital Movie Downloads, Pay-Per-View and Divx are more comparable to each other than Movie Downloads and Disc Media are to each other. For now, the Movie Download is a very long way from replacing Blu-disc/DVD media.
Movie Downloads have their place in the industry, but they will never take over as the industry standard. For now it’s just another option to Pay-Per-View.
March 31st, 2008
Digital downloads aren’t happening soon, at least not at the quality that Blu Ray offers. Personally I think it would be great if I could stream HD quality movies but here is the reality…
These formats are HUGE. Fiber Optic networks would have to be available to the masses before this could be a reality and that’s not happening until 2015 at least (for any more then a nominal percentage).
For the naysayers about watching digital downloads on a computer screen only, you need a reality check too. You aren’t being very forward thinking b/c it’s easy enough to make a hardware that hooks up to the TV and internet … Apple already has a product acutally.
So for those who want the highest quality downloads wont be ready for a while (10 years is a generious time on the short side before this infrastructure is in place). It’s extremely expensive and the companies (comcast, TW etc.) aren’t ready to make this mass investment and when they do it will be years and years to implement.
Just a note to the OP. Don’t tout yourself as a “expert” in your own article (even if you are) it really damages credibility b/c you sound like a douche.
March 31st, 2008
it’s more cost efficient to offer d/l movies. netflix is ALREADY proving the success of this business model and they are still in their infancy. As the glut of dark fiber in NA gets lit, the ease and speed of d/l movies will only increase as bb prices continue to drop with increased footprints. i doubt it’ll be the “death of bluray” all by itself, but it’ll sure be a contributor.
March 31st, 2008
Reality Check, where did I say I was an expert? I’m not, and never said I was.
April 2nd, 2008
As an example only: a million or so people doing regular downloads of hugh giga/tera bytes of movies files everyday. Can’t anybody see the problems with this?
Issues with ISP infrastructures, cost per month to the consumer. The economy in general ( hello recession). And the massive amounts of data server/farms holding these movies, will pose huge temptations for global hackers to try and penatrate, steal and distrabute the stolen movies. (which means added security and added cost to consumers) Virus bots constant probings on the net for flow of data ( the net’s like the wild wild west ). The constant sophications ( I kno spelled wrong )of hacks/virus attacks.
I think these are really serious issues when it comes to digital downloads.
I know Netflicks have a success but if the business model proves even successful what about increased competitons, which will further stress the net infrastructures, further causing unreliable bandwith issues.
The question is how reliable and dependable can digital downloads be in the end when movies company decides to create bigger budget movies demanding for increased bandwidth downloads; and of course copyright infringments to follow.
In the end which will become easier to make and distribute. We, as human beings, will always demand more. Its in our nature.
As for me, i guess im old school, still prefer the reliable cool packaging in my hands.
April 4th, 2008
does anyone knows if there is any other information about this subject in other languages?
September 3rd, 2008
Blue Ray’s death is already preordained, just as DVD, VCD, VHS, Beta, Cassette Tapes, 8 Track Tapes, 33 RPM Records, and 78 RPM Records were. Technology marches onward without stopping or looking back. The question is whether downloads or Hard memory chips will win out in the end. I for one cannot guess which one consumers will choose. I can only guarantee that all formats with moving parts will eventually die as will “hard drives” that have spinning disks. Moving parts = obsolescence.
January 7th, 2009
Since the purchase of my iPhone, I have downloaded several television shows, and “Wall-E”. Since the option was present, I chose to download the HD version for all. I do have my 26″ HDTv connected by way of HDMI. I was and still am severely impressed with the quality of the picture, not only on my phone, but on the television as well. It does certainly rival the quality of other HD formats. Furthermore, I had them in less than two hours over a terrible WiFi connection. I have a PS3, and I am certainly impressed with the quality. On side with Blu-Ray; Most that come out, these days, include a digital copy, and the option which type of format (apple/Windows). So, you can take it with you. I can’t really say I agree that death is near for either, or that one might hurt the other. However, possibly, that choices may become more numerous.
February 6th, 2009
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February 15th, 2009
The truth of the entire bluray mess is in the end to control 100% of every peace pf media you buy and watch . “THIS WILL HAPPEN” after bluray works it way into the mainstream you all get a update in firmware 1 night and suddenly you cannot loan your friend your bluray disc . Your player starts locking your disc to your player making them useless inside any other player and removing any resale value .
Sony has already annouced this a year before blurays release of the first disc . So all you mindless morons just go on get yourself wedged nicely under sonys thumb .
Dont start the crying war after they have all of you locked up behind the HDMi ports and bluray locked disc .
I will have the last laugh in the end . Unless the public learns the hidden truth behind the format . To end piracey and control everything you listen to and watch .