Blu-ray dead within five years – DVD is simply good enough
By Dave Parrack
Blu-ray may have won the high-definition format war, but that’s no guarantee that it will be around for any substantial period of time. In fact, there is increasing speculation that the Blu-ray format will be dead within the next five years.
Back in March came word from a chief scientist at audio specialists, THX, that Blu-ray was “dead man walking”. This was due to the fact that new methods of distributing and storing movies are now on the way, none of which need a spinning disc format of any kind.
Then recently, an executive at Samsung predicted that Blu-ray would be gone in five years time. Although the format is selling well at the moment, it is unlikely to build up enough of a following amongst the mainstream to have taken off in any real sense before those new methods of storage are being used extensively.
But for me, the biggest challenge facing Blu-ray player is SD DVD, the format that has been with us for 15 years, and which most of us use on a daily basis in one way or another. With that level of use, it’ll take something spectacular from the Blu-ray camp to see off a format that is still more than capable enough for most people’s uses.
Blu-ray is a brilliant technology, of that there is no doubt. But does it offer enough difference from standard DVD to really persuade the majority of people to make the switch. That is what’s needed if Blu-ray is to stand any chance of getting the kind of traction necessary to last beyond the next few years.
For someone to really enjoy Blu-ray, they first have to upgrade their television to a 1080p HD ready model. Then they have to buy a Blu-ray player. And then finally, they have to start replacing their collection of DVDs with the same movies on Blu-ray. That is one hell of an expensive venture in order to enjoy a slightly better picture when watching Lord Of The Rings.
Add to that the fact that most new DVD players up scale the definition of your existing collection, and you have a pretty lethal combination that could result in the death of Blu-ray before it’s even reached puberty.
I think Blu-ray has too much going against it: competition from DVD, competition from digital downloads, the expense of switching; to survive past the next few years. If the format is still with us in ten years time, I’ll eat my hat along with my whole DVD collection.
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September 16th, 2008
Well, two things.
1. In the U.S., Comcast on October 1 will be the first of the large broadband providers to impose an actual cap on uploads/downloads. If people start downloading lots of HD content online, then this kind of capping will have an economic effect, possibly making renting or owning Blu-Ray discs the more financially prudent option over downloading/streaming.
2. Blu-Ray has but one thing standing in its way from widespread adoption, and that is PRICE. Every DVD player sold today would be a backward-compatible Blu-Ray drive if the price would only come down. This would ensure the format’s viability long-term, and Sony would be wise to help see that the price DOES come down sooner than later. I suspect that Blu-Ray component prices will drop dramatically this Christmas–and in the post-Christmas sales–this year, and even more next year.
September 16th, 2008
You make some interesting points, a couple I’d like to comment on.
First, even if it’s only five years, that’s a pretty long time when you consider Blu-ray has already been around for two years, so that would give it seven years of life at a most sonservative estimate. DVD was considered wildly successful when it peaked after just 10 years and has been flat or declining the last several years. But the five-year prediction is not validated by the numbers which show Blu-ray sales increasing enormously on all fronts this year, from 4.5 times as many Blu-ray discs being sold in the U.S. every month this year compared to 2007, to PlayStation 3 sales of two million units representing a 92% increase over 2007.
Second, you say people have to get an HDTV to enjoy Blu-ray — that will happen in America soon since almost everyone (except a few) will have an HDTV by February since we have a digital broadcast signal mandate by then.
Third, contrary to your point, the beauty of Blu-ray is you do NOT have to replace your DVD collection. As you note later, you can enjoy an upscaled version of your existing DVD just fine on a Blu-ray player until and if you ever decide to buy a Blu-ray version.
Finally, you can’t predict a dim future for Blu-ray while predicting a bright future for digital downloads, the latter of which have made only a tiny dent in the home disc market, not even keeping up with the Blu-ray segment of that market.
September 16th, 2008
Blu-ray will take off when the players are within a hundred dollars of your average DVD player and can be played and recorded on all platforms.
Until then in this economy…DVDs will still rule. Besides, DVDs can be recorded on Windows machines, Linux machines and of course Mac. Blank DVDs have dramatically come down in price. One could pickup a 100 pack for $20 or less on sale.
Side note: I still make use of that ancient technology …called the VCR. Tapes are cheap, erasable, still available. As long as I can watch the program, it doesn’t really matter much if it isn’t HDTV or SDTV . I also save money by not having to pay for monthly TIVO fees or DVR fees.
I am all for better technology, but being practical comes first.
September 16th, 2008
@Scott “digital broadcast signal mandate” has NOTHING to do with HD. DVD is Digital My Satellite is Digital. I don’t have HD and the death of my TVs will be the only reason for me to change.
DVDs are more then movies for me. I use them on the PC for backing up many things including movies. So If I was to switch to Blue-ray It would have to drop in price and the media would have to become cheap and a recorder also.
My 62 inch TV died last month so I will be switching to HD after X-Mas. I still wont get blue-ray unless I get a PS3 (Which I may) and even then the movies will be upscale DVDs.
September 16th, 2008
@Ralph You are 100% right.
September 16th, 2008
Hoorah let’s all get rid of optical media for drmed downloads and flash drives
Seriously tech geeks and nerds are so far out of kilt it’s not even funny
September 16th, 2008
Blu-ray Disc won’t die not even in ten years. Digital Download is pathetic especially for games and hd movies. Only an idiot would ever say Blu-ray technology will die.
September 16th, 2008
DRM on downloads etc isn’t a scary deal.
Just as the music industry has had to tune in & wise up with selling music on-line and stop it so too will the movie industry with movie downloads, even if it is currently kicking & screaming.
Those who imagine everyone cares or even wants a full 50gb download are just throwing up ridiculous straw-men & barriers to ‘defend’ their desire to see Blu-ray prevail.
It won’t cos it can’t.
In future we’ll be offered a range of options, once you dump the completely unnecessary languages and that bloated waste that is uncompressed audio for something more sensible (Dolby Digital plus or DTS probably) then downloads of properly encoded and superb looking 8 – 12gb sized movies becomes a serious option.
You will probably even be able pick the 720p option if your HD TV doesn’t do 1080p & d/l about 5gbs.
We’re all seeing the connection infrastructure upgrade too.
Within 2 – 4yrs it’ll be complately different.
The Blu-ray fanclub just refuse to get it.
The PS3 was a smart move to win the extremely niche high def spat with HD DVD but it did nothing but drive them ever further up the game console niche as far as the true mass-market is concerned.
Blu-ray is still all but invisible as far as the mainstream are concerned, 2yrs and counting of ‘life’ or not.
The truth is that Blu-ray was always the dumb way to go.
Blu-ray & the expensive PS3 it relies so heavily upon, still, merely ensured that high def movies on disc never went mass-market – which is exactly what we have seen this year.
There’s no point hiding behind inventied claims about HD DVD, it’s long gone and Blu-ray has done nothing since then; despite periodic BDA lies & exaggeration, as the weekly Neilson numbers prove.
Blu-ray has simply taken a gamble (that PS3 would see it through until such time as it was genuinely ‘ready’ and finished with final spec players out around $100) and has found itself desperately unlucky to be up against the almighty DVD (which simply towers over the Blu-ray pygmy in total discs sold) and be trying to gain traction at a point where we in the west are all just about to go into a serious depression.
This is not the time anyone (outside the game console fanboy element) could care less about a very expensive new video format.
Especially not one that requires a load of very expensive kit to make the most of
(ie a great big 1080p HD TV and a set of expensive audio stuff).
The future is obvious.
Better DVD players and a growing cheaper downloaded sector.
September 16th, 2008
…..oh and for those who deny this here’s another gem of truth.
Even Sony have launched not one but two downloading services.
One for PS3 owners and another for their Bravia HD TV owners.
The news is full every week of new downloading services – not forgetting HD TV services offering HD TV video on demand etc etc.
Blu-ray couldn’t become ‘the next DVD’ even if everything was going for it (which it clearly isn’t) cos the ‘DVD market’ as was has now fragmented so heavily and continues to do so at an accelerating rate.
September 21st, 2008
I wasn’t a fan of Blu-ray and personally favored HD-DVD. But now that it is the winning format I hope it will stick around. However it does look like that resolution could quadruple with Samsung and Panasonic currently having prototype TV’s with resolution of 2160p. A new format capable of holding more information will be needed to support this resolution.
Movies available for download actually have worse picture quality than DVD. To get that rather small file size the picture is compressed to about 2mb/s. Uncompressed 1920×1080 is about 3GB/s. On Blu-Ray it is compressed to something like 50MB/s. Keep in mind this is only 1080p/24. A disk with more space would probably benefit picture quality for current 1080p and hopefully up the picture to 1080p/60.
There are 2 experimental formats out there which offer way more capacity which we may or may not ever see depending on if everything goes download only. I cant remember what they are called but one is a disk with 50GB layers and can support 10 layers for 500GB. The other is a disk with 5GB layers and 200 layers a possible for 1TB. There is no noise from layer to layer either.
If we start downloading all our media instead of having a hard copy of it it is obvious that today’s storage devices are nowhere near big enough. We would need like a 20TB hard drive for this to be practical. On top of that this would mean we use our hard drive more and some people are probably capable of ruining one within 3 years. What do you do than?
September 23rd, 2008
I recently purchased a Blu Ray player and love it. I am sick of hearing people say you *have* to replace your existing DVD collection. You do not. The Blu Ray player is backwards compatible and will upscale your existing DVD collection. I am only replacing my favorite DVDs. Now that I have a Blu Ray player I will never buy another DVD when a Blu Ray version is available. The quality difference is huge. Those who do not see it are in denial or need their eyes checked. :)
I do not think Digital Downloads will takeover. Streaming might. But it is not as simple as taking a disc out of its case and putting it in a player. The majority of people out there are not tech savvy.
October 5th, 2008
home entertainment is not for poor people, people in the ghetto still think that rabbit ear antenna are new wave technology
November 28th, 2008
I was an HD DVD fan (it was cheap for my xbox) and I have put off buying a Blu Ray till Today(Black Friday) Once I was able to find it for under $100 I jumped on it. There is a HUGE difference between Standard Def DVD’s and High Definition, whether it be tv, HD DVD or Blu Ray. I also subscribe to Netflix primarily for the movie streaming. I am techy, and well its just too much hassle for me, I have a 20MB net connection and there are still sometimes occasional stutters… well I don’t see the Optical format going anywhere. People aren’t going to want to upgrade their players unless its affordable AND can play their old stuff… because new players should play DVD’s, BluRay, HD DVDs, and any thing else that is shaped the same… Give it some time though and I’m sure new tech will come out, but the old tech won’t disappear as soon as new tech is annouced.
June 11th, 2009
The bad and worsening economy will doom blue-ray. People will be lucky to have a tv at all never mind a high definition one. Peak oil is going to cause a paradigm shift which does not favor the techies. Dvd is good enough. Shall one be lucky enough to have electricity in spite of the economy and/or peak oil, they will probably be watching dvds over any other movie format or good old fashioned over the air tv.
August 16th, 2009
The author “Dave” said he will eat his hat and collection of DVD if Blu-ray is still around in 2018…now that Toshiba is onboard with Blu-ray and sales have been improving year over year and HDTV’s are the replacement TV that consumers are getting, does Dave like cheese to go with his hat?