Why Blu-ray is failing: In the wrong place at the wrong time
By Dave Parrack
When Blu-ray beat HD DVD as the high-definition format of choice at the beginning of 2008, I was enthusiastic about the format and optimistic that it would prove to be successful. But over the few months, my viewpoint has changed dramatically, and I’m not alone in thinking that Blu-ray will ultimately fail to take off.
Blu-ray IS currently the high-def format of choice. There’s no arguing against that, it’s a fact that’s as clear as the nose on my face. The problem is that although HD televisions have taken off massively, with everyone either having already upgraded, or planning to upgrade to an LCD or plasma TV, they’re not that fussy about what format they watch on their new purchase.
Anyone buying a new big-screen TV tomorrow would likely get home and pop a normal DVD in to see the quality. And they’ll likely be ecstatic with the results. Even if they are one of the few to own a dedicated Blu-ray player, or more likely than not, a Playstation 3, they will still be happy with the quality of a run-of-the-mill SD DVD thanks to the picture upscaling.
So then where is the motivation for a mainstream consumer to replace their huge library of DVDs and spend a fortune on buying the same films on Blu-ray? As Don Reisinger argues on The Digital Home, the difference between DVD and Blu-ray is so minute when compared with the difference between VHS and DVD that there will never be the huge rush to replace one format with the other.
Recent sales figures have shown that Blu-ray is only managing a paltry 8% market share, with DVD accounting for the other 92%. That’s a huge margin that, even in this early stage of the format’s life, has got to be a worry for Sony and all the Blu-ray fanboys.
I’m sure the market share that Blu-ray enjoys will increase over time, but it’ll ultimately fail to outdo DVD any time soon. And by the time it comes close, the industry will have moved on to digital downloads and Internet-connected set-top boxes.
Blu-ray may be the new standard for the industry, but that industry is currently in a state of flux about whether physical formats have a future or if digital media will take over completely. In that sense, Blu-ray is just in the wrong place at the wrong time.
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September 28th, 2008
Blu-ray is also not being helped by the fact that 720p/1080i panels are still the majority of HD sets being sold & that are out there – which means that the claimed and expected ‘benefits’ Blu-ray is supposed to offer compared to upscaled DVD are even smaller.
(and remember that HD sets of any description are still very much the minority of the total TV ‘installed user base’ market)
“According to the Consumer Electronics Association (CEA) in Arlington, Va., shipments of true 1080p hi-def TVs through July 2008 were 5.1 million units, accounting for $6.6 billion in sales.
In comparison, the shipments of flat panel televisions of lower resolutions, such as 480p, 720p and 1080i, amounted to 8.4 million units or $4.6 billion dollars.”
http://blogs.computerworld.com/lower_res_tv_sales_outpace_1080p_hurting_blu_ray
I think the net result of the HD DVD & Blu-ray experience is that we can see very clearly that the general public just are not willing to pay out the high sums the CE & movie industry thought we ought to be paying for HD tech.
I like HD – I have HD DVD & Blu-ray, a very recent large 1080p/24 LCD HD TV & the audio receiver to bitstream all the latest audio & a 7.1 speak kit to experience them properly – sometimes it looks & sounds amazing, almost 3D with outstanding audio.
The trouble few wish to acknowledge is that a lot of the time it doesn’t.
A lot of the time it looks very ordinary.
My wife often says she can see a minimal difference and certainly not one ‘worth’ spending a fortune on the new kit needed for it.
September 28th, 2008
1 Week of low BD sales does NOT equate a failing format.
The same week the financial infrastructure took a huge hit in the US. Financial security is low for everybody.
There were also no major BD releases that week, lets wait for next week when Iron Man shippes eh.
And DD..is a joke, unless you can explain how to avoid bandwidth caps and install a completely new delivery method (ie: fibre optics) and bring these super-fast connections AFFORDABLY into every home in North America. So people wanting to DL 25+GB films do not wait for a day to watch their film. Movie buyers want hard copies.
September 29th, 2008
Wait until Star Wars comes out on Blu-Ray.
September 29th, 2008
I have to say that I’m tired of hearing the same old comment that most people won’t want to rush out and replace their DVD library. Who the hell ever said that they had to? I’ll watch my 300+ DVDs on my Blu-Ray player, thank you very much. And now I buy all my NEW movies in Blu-Ray.
And to say the difference between DVD and Blu Ray is minute is a bit of a stretch. Maybe on a set smaller than 40″, but above that it’s quite noticeable.
September 29th, 2008
It’s not just one week of low sales.
It’s a lifetime of minute sales.
DVD sells 1.7 billion units in the USA p.a.
http://www.dvdinformation.com/industryData/index.cfm
DVD sells over 7 billion discs worldwide.
http://www.contentdeliveryandstorage.org/stats/stat-replication_worldwide.html
Blu-ray has yet to match even 1% of those (true) sales numbers, ever.
Forget Nielson’s funny PR BS, it’s just statistical number-wang.
September 29th, 2008
Sorry, not buying it. Even the WORST Blu-ray I have ever watched was better PQ than DVD. And the premise that you must throw out your DVD’s and buy replacements on lu is ridiculous, few would ever do such a thing unless they have hordes of disposable cash. Blu-ray players ALL play DVD’s, so no investment in DVD moviews is lost by upgrading to a Blu-ray player and switching to all future disc purchases being Blu-ray rather than DVD. I don’t consider myself awash in cash, but I for SURE would never buy a movie on DVD any more (except kids movies until we have Blu-ray in our cars).
September 30th, 2008
No-one ever said there was no difference between DVD & high def.
The point has always been whether the difference between DVD upscaled (which it always has to be to fit on the higher res panel) and Blu-ray is ‘worth’ the high premium Blu-ray demands.
(especially when new audio kit is taken into account to enjoy the new audio standards)
On the mass-market screen sizes (32″ – 50″) – and with the majority of them being 720p/1080i panels, so the l;eap between upscaled DVD & high def is even less – it simply is not ‘worth’ it to many.
“According to the Consumer Electronics Association (CEA) in Arlington, Va., shipments of true 1080p hi-def TVs through July 2008 were 5.1 million units, accounting for $6.6 billion in sales. In comparison, the shipments of flat panel televisions of lower resolutions, such as 480p, 720p and 1080i, amounted to 8.4 million units or $4.6 billion dollars.”
http://blogs.computerworld.com/lower_res_tv_sales_outpace_1080p_hurting_blu_ray
No wonder Blu-ray sales are so tiny
(no matter how much they try and massage the numbers).
…..and as for playing your DVDs on a Blu-ray player?
It is (in my view) no accident that most Blu-ray players are well known for being very poor DVD players.
(obviously they are trying to exaggerate the difference)
September 30th, 2008
I have to agree.
I will not get a BR except in a PS3 which I will buy for the gaming. I may rent a BR disk from time to time to try it out but my upscale DVD will keep me from buying BR movies.
October 12th, 2008
With the world economy in such a bad state with, many experts predicting things won’t pick up until at least 2010, it doesn’t take a genius to see that the mass market won’t be rushing out to replace their DVD systems with Blu Ray.
As for Blu Ray sales, well it’s almost a cetainty that fewer discs will be sold, both DVD and Blu |Ray than usual.
I agree Blu Ray is in the wrong place at the wrong time, but it’s the economy that’s going to bite Blu Rays progress hardest.
Will Blu Ray ever be as sucessfull as DVD?
Not a chance!
October 28th, 2008
I purchased a Toshiba HD player because Paramount released the first season of Remastered Star Trek on HD. Subsquently I bought a bunch of HD titles. I’m happy I did because it wasn’t a lot of cash. I have a 42′ plasma and love the look of HD, plus the upscaling is excellent. To boot, Toshiba is still sending updates via disk.
I’ll get into blu when Paramount gets around to the second & third season of trek on blu-ray. I wonder when that’ll happen?