We’re coming up to the first Christmas since the high-definition DVD format wars ended, but tech and business analysts are divided about how well Blu-ray will perform in holiday sales. Some point to cash-strapped consumers being wary of splashing out, while other say Blu-ray players have hit the tipping point for mass adoption.

That theory is based on the idea that $200 is a psychological barrier for many consumers: once players come below that point they no longer feel like a luxury and there’s less worry about taking a risk of buying technology which will become obsolete. MSNBC has a great quote from an analyst who calls $200 the “I-don’t-have-to-ask-my-wife’s-permission” number.

Many Blu-ray players still remain in the $250-$400 range, but entry level models should fall below $200 during the holiday sales. Most of the models at that price will come without internet connections, though many would-be buyers probably won’t either know or care about that point.

The other main stumbling block is that a Blu-ray machine is largely pointless unless you have an HDTV: it’s not like the original launch of DVD where the improvements over VHS were obvious on any set.

Indeed, despite the prices, one survey suggests twice as many people are planning to buy HD sets this Christmas than Blu-ray players. That’s likely down to the impending switch to all-digital TV broadcasting; whatever the reason, it’s understandable that people paying large sums for a TV won’t be stretching to a new DVD player as well.

Another stumbling block for Blu-ray sales is the Playstation 3, which is able to play the discs. It seems likely that many people who’d be most likely to want the latest DVD technology will already have a PS3 and thus have no need to buy a standalone player.

One point that analysts don’t seem to have picked up on is the effect of granny factor on disc sales. A significant proportion of presents for children, teenagers and those in their 20s (who are more likely to ask for the latest technology) are bought by older people (such as grandparents) who may not be as familiar with the technology. Confronted with a request for a movie that’s available in two formats, there’s a good chance many unfamiliar buyers will opt for the standard DVD version rather than pay the higher Blu-ray price when they don’t really understand the difference.

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Entry was posted on Wednesday, November 26th, 2008 at 3:57 pm under High Definition Formats.

Read more entries by John Lister.
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