Could 2009 be the year Blu-ray goes mainstream?
By Dave Parrack
On Christmas Eve, I wrote an article arguing that Blu-ray really needed one thing for Christmas – a miracle. But here we are in a brand new year and things might be looking up for the format. Maybe. Could 2009 be the year Blu-ray goes mainstream?
The 2009 Consumer Electronics Show, starting on Wednesday in Las Vegas, has prompted The New York Times to once again look at the health of the Blu-ray format and ask questions over whether it will become mainstream or fizzle out into utter obscurity against the burgeoning digital formats.
CES is of course important in the story of Blu-ray because last year’s show coincided with the death of its rival format, HD DVD, which Toshiba killed off prematurely after it became clear Sony’s format was on the up. So, with the CES floor virtually all to itself in terms of video formats, can Blu-ray use this year’s show as a springboard to mainstream success.
There will be some, of course, who already regard Blu-ray as a mainstream success. But it’s not. Yes, there have been some impressive sales figures, with The Dark Knight helping the format especially well in December. But one movie does not a format make. Every new release needs to be selling on Blu-ray in large numbers in order to truly take the format mainstream.
We’ve entered the new year with Blu-ray at a crucial time in its lifespan. The price of the hardware is rapidly dropping, meaning new demographics are being brought into the market. But juxtaposed to that is the ever-worsening economy, and I’m not sure if people are really going to want to spend money on updating their movie collection. Especially if they first need to buy a new HD TV to play the format on.
There’s a kind of race going on right now between how quickly DVD will drop, Blu-ray will rise, and the technology needed for mass-market downloadable HD movies over the Internet becomes a reality. LG has recently announced a new range of televisions which include the ability to download or watch on-demand movies without the need for a set-top-box. So the industry is slowly shifting in that direction.
Blu-ray definitely arrived properly in 2008, seeing off its only serious rival and starting to eat away at the DVD market. But whether there’s enough momentum for Blu-ray to use this springboard to really grab the mainstream market remains to be seen.
What’s clear is that people who use Blu-ray love it, and wouldn’t be caught dead going back to DVD. But they’re in the minority. Most people it seems are happy with the quality and affordability of SD DVD and see no reason to graduate to the new format. Which is a huge problem for a format that needs mainstream adoption if it stands any chance of succeeding.
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Stumble It!
January 6th, 2009
Not a chance.
The mass-market uses small (32″ – 42″) HD TVs – that is the minority that have them, Nielson put total HD TV market penetration at 24% a month or so back.
We also know that 720p/1080i HD TVs are the majority still being sold (according numbers as recent as Sept 08).
So the jump in image quality Blu-ray offers is much reduced on those sets compared to the quality upscaled DVD offers.
Of course there is a difference but I am extremely doubtful if the mass-market will find that marginal improvment ‘worth’ the much higher costs Blu-ray demands.
Most will find their DVD ‘good enough’.
…..and for those who say that the audio quality is so much better?
Well it is.
But.
I am again doubtful that any but a tiny minority will ever spend the small fortune necessary to buy the necessary high-end receiver and speaker set-up required to even hear the range of frequencies, properly defined, that HD audio offers.
I’d bet the house that most pretending to hear the difference now on low-end or mid-range kit are simply fooling themselves (usually because a little light comes on and the sound ‘gets a little louder’)
For most Dolby Digital & DTS will be ‘good enough’.
The coming recession (which has yet to fully bite) just ensures no-one is going to be splashing out large amounts on a new video format.
Even HD TVs (which I had thought might stave off the down-turn best) are having their production numbers slashed.
….and without HD TVs no-one cares about either upscaled DVD or Blu-ray.
January 6th, 2009
Blu-Ray cannot go “mainstream” until 32- and 37-inch 1080p HDTV prices drop below $300 AND Blu-Ray players drop below $150 AND certain key titles are available on Blu-Ray that are not yet available (e.g. Star Wars).
January 19th, 2009
Blu ray players and will continue to drop. The biggest concern is the artificial price of blu ray format discs. Unit costs are cheap. If Sony and the government allowed for fair market pricing, a $20 cost baseline for new releases would surge greatly in volume sales.