Scientists say the sea is rising and isn’t good news
Recent studies by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) show that rising sea levels are more of a threat than previously thought. Sea ice melting is allowing more ice-sheet melting causing sea levels to rise more than expected.
The IPCC was created in 1988 by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and by the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP). This panel was formed to provide “an objective source of information about the causes of climate change, its potential environmental and socio-economic consequences and the adaptation and mitigation options to respond to it.” This isn’t an organization that is influenced by the political views of one country since hundreds of scientists world wide are authors, contributors and reviewers of IPCC studies and reports.
According to The Guardian, the most recent IPCC report issued in 2007, predicted up to a 60 centimeter or 24 inch rise in sea levels by 2100. The U.S. Geological Survey issued a warning that the should actually be on and a half meters or about five feet by 2100. The IPCC decided to revise its estimation accordingly. Quite a difference for two years of additional studying.
At the time the 2007 report was issued, little was known about the effects of ice-sheet melting which accounted for the predicted low amount of rising sea levels. After further study including satellite images of the Greenland and Antarctica, that the loss of sea was dramatically affecting the ice-sheets surrounding Greenland and Antarctica.
Further observations and calculations led to the revised estimate of sea level rise by 2100. Sea ice props ice-sheets up and with the loss of sea ice the ice-sheets have started falling into the ocean and melting more quickly. The water from the melting ice-sheets is what is causing the rise in sea level and not the melting of the sea ice.
Tad Pfeffer at the University of Colorado at Boulder and his team published calculations in September that ran several scenarios from best case to worst case. Their estimation was even higher, one to two meters or three to six and a half feet.
Dr Jason Lowe of the Hadley Center had this to say about the effects of CO2 emissions and global warming:
- It is still not clear exactly how much the sea will rise by the end of this century, but it is certain that rises will continue for hundreds of years beyond that – even if we do manage to stabilize carbon dioxide emissions and halt the rise in atmospheric temperature. The sea will continue to heat up and expand. In addition, the Greenland ice sheets will continue to melt.
In other words, we have already created conditions that will affect our grandchildren and great grandchildren. Continuing to pollute the atmosphere with CO2 and other greenhouse gases is only making it worse. The increased use of coal in developing nations and the continued use of coal in industrial nations will continue to affect the situation.
As it is a sea level rise to the low ball figure of one meter is enough to cause catastrophic damage around the world. The Netherlands, which is already below sea level will be flooded, as will Bangladesh, Florida, and the Maldives. Cities like London will experience major issues with rivers and shipping which will necessitate major infrastructure changes. Alexandria, Egypt will disappear.
The United States as one of the largest countries will experience damage not damage to Florida but will face “face a bill of around $156bn to protect …roughly 12,400 miles of coastline and more than 19,900 square miles of coastal wetlands.”
Coastal farming will become non-existent. The rising levels of the oceans will contaminate surface and underground fresh water supplies – a phenomenon that is already occurring in China, Vietnam, Thailand and Israel.
Flooding from the rise in sea level is only one of the effects of global climate change. When you factor in the expected increase in major storms, the occurrence of flooding of even larger areas of the world will cause further devastation.
This is no longer a question of if, but when and how bad. Cleaning up the atmosphere might change extremely long term (longer than 2100) estimations but the next one hundred years looks to be brutal. Since the largest nations in the world such as India, China, and the United States have as yet to make concerted efforts to reduce industrial emissions and greenhouse gases, all the estimates may actually increase.
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