With all of the advances being made in the solar industry, it was only a matter of time before someone predicted that solar energy would be affordable at a dollar a watt.  New methods of creating solar cells, new coatings, new technology were bound to bring on the optimism.

The CEO and founder of California-based Akeena Solar in California, Barry Cinnamon, has gone out on a limb to predict that by 2010, photovoltaic(PV) solar power would be the cheapest way to generate energy, at least in California.

Most of the growth in the use of PV systems in the United States has been in California.  Homeowners, companies and utilities have taken to PV energy like an otter to dam building.

Cinnamo made the following prediction:

In 2010, PV will be by far the most cost-effective way of generating electricity. The solar PV market in California will explode once people discover that they can generate their own rooftop power for less than it costs from their utility.

The above quote may be why electric utilities like PG&E in California are investing heavily to create large PV power plants.  If solar is cheaper and cleaner to generate, why not build PV arrays that will generate cheap and clean energy?

This year the U.S. is poised to be the biggest PV solar energy market just behind Germany.  The growth in the PV industry in the U.S. is expected to be 50 percent per year.  Ten years from now, the United States could easily be the largest solar market in the world.

The Solar Electric Power Association (SEPA) has tracked 1500 MW in solar PV initiatives in the USA.  With the 50 percent expected growth in PV use, that 1500 MW could easily become 4000 MW in five years.  With greater growth in the PV industry, lower prices will be inevitable.

Part of this growth spurt can be credited to President Obama’s “Renewable Energy stimulus package and financial incentives,” which will continue at least through the next eight years.  The Renewable Energy stimulus package pumps money into solar energy just as the solar market has been experiencing a double whammy.

The solar market has taken a financial hit just like the rest of the economy.  Added to this stumbling block is a current glut of solar cells on the market.  Several projects have been canceled by companies and individuals who saw their ability to invest in new solar initiatives dry up with the economy or dry up with the credit crunch.

Even in the midst of this economic turmoil, the solar industry is planning for the day when all incentives and rebates are gone.   This industry expects to be able to provide energy at or below grid parity, making solar power the cheapest energy out there.

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Entry was posted on Tuesday, April 7th, 2009 at 5:25 pm under Green Technology.

Read more entries by Susan Wilson.
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