When the technology sector crashed in 2001, PC sales dropped by 5.1 percent. Since then, PC sales have risen for eight straight years in a row. But 2009 may see that trend end, with analysts claiming we’re looking at a drop of around 4 percent during 2009. That’s despite Windows 7 being released later this year.

2001 was a bad year all round for the technology sector. Coming off the back of an immense and wholly intense dotcom boom, the crash was hard to watch but almost inevitable. That year saw the PC market free fall by 5.1 percent, and it’s taken a good few years for the sales figures to build back up to the pre-crash days.

Now, according to new research from iSuppli, PC sales are set to drop again this year, for the first time in nine years. The market research firm had previously predicted a 0.7 percent rise but is now projecting a 4 percent drop. It suggests sales will drop from the 299.2 million units shipped worldwide in 2008 to 287.3 million units shipped in 2009.

The obvious cause to put the blame on would be the continuing economic downturn, and that’s clearly having an effect on the spending habits of both IT departments and home consumers. However, iSuppli thinks the demise of the desktop PC in favor of notebooks and netbooks is more to blame. It explains:

The primary factor driving the decline in the PC market in 2009 is an expected 18.1 percent plunge in desktop shipments. Unit shipments of desktop PCs will amount to 124.4 million in 2009, down from 151.9 million in 2008. Entry-level servers—which iSuppli includes in its definition of PCs—also will suffer a decline, with shipments falling to 6.9 million units, down 9.5 percent from 7.7 million in 2008.

Those falling desktop sales will be somewhat replaced by rising sales of notebooks, set to rise almost 12 percent this year. But that simply isn’t enough to help the sector as whole. And with the recession still persuading people to keep their money in their pockets rather than spending it, PC sales look set to decline by quite a margin.

I’d be surprised if the release of Windows 7 on Oct. 22 doesn’t help up sales at the end of the year by at least a small increment. Many consumers will surely have put off buying a PC in the first half of 2009 in order to get hold of the new Microsoft operating system as soon as possible. And this is sure to help going into 2010 as well.

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Entry was posted on Tuesday, July 14th, 2009 at 11:58 pm under Opinion, Technology.

Read more entries by Dave Parrack.
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