Ubisoft predicts 3DTV for all by 2013
Everyone is going to own a 3D TV set by 2013, at least according to Ubisoft. Which is optimistic at best, laughable at worst.
There are a lot of companies heavily investing in 3D, and that means they need the technology to take off in a big way or they’ll end up out of pocket. Which is probably the best explanation for the prediction made by Murray Pannel, Ubisoft’s head of marketing in the U.K. in an interview with Eurogamer recently.
He said:
The truth is I think it is a technology that’s coming. We can’t ignore it. It’ll start slowly this year. But like HDTV I wouldn’t rule out the fact that this will be installed in everyone’s living room in three years’ time, and for us to be in a position to have content that could really look absolutely amazing in 3D.
He’s kidding right? HD television took off in a huge way but even that took longer than three years to reach the level of ownership it’s now at. And 3D isn’t as compelling as HD, and the technology is just too expensive to appeal to anyone but the most egotistical early adopters.
Pannel also said:
We were the first publisher to create a proper 3D game with Avatar last year. Ahead of its time in many ways because the technology was in its infancy and you couldn’t buy 3D TVs at all.
Because that makes perfect business sense, doesn’t it. Let’s release a game that no one can play in the form it’s meant to be played in. Geez.
Like those few people who have already shelled out a fortune for a 3D television set, Ubisoft is defending the technology in order to save face. But my own prediction would be that 3DTV won’t truly take off until the need to wear glasses is removed. Which is estimated to be around 2015.
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July 10th, 2010
the problem is that the upgrade to HD came as a natural progression where people replaced old bulky and smaller CRT sets. Now that they have just spent a wad of cash on a nice large slinky new set, why should they suddenly ditch this and spend more money to get 3D? why should i be replacing my 2 year old 42inch toshiba full HD LCD over the next 2.5 years? give it at least 5-10 years.
July 15th, 2010
Agree on the need to ditch the glasses. I don’t mind wearing them in a theater as I’m dedicated to watching the movie. But in the home environment I’m not. I’ll pause to get a drink, take a call, look something up online, or let the dog out.
And like Rimmer noted, the cycle for replacing TVs is far longer than PCs or gaming consoles. As far as tech goes it has about the longest consumer cycle I can think of. Even now, while we have an HDTV in the bedroom I haven’t replaced our old tube set in the family room. Maybe later this year, but we’re in no hurry.