The New York Times talks about how the Dems opportunity isn’t as rosy as some may think.

Democrats clearly face hurdles that make it harder to translate national discontent into big changes in the House. “The map is not skewed for competitive races,” said Representative Rahm Emanuel of Illinois, chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. “On the other hand, you have voters who are sick and tired of the direction that the country is going. Which will outweigh? If anyone tells you a year out, they’ve never been in politics.”

And more evidence that “fiscally responsible” Democrats will soon emerge.

Of course, the public’s view of Mr. Bush and his party may change significantly over the next year. But right now, Congressional Democrats say they are preparing to run as the party of change, offering “new priorities,” as their talking points put it, with an emphasis on “putting our fiscal house in order” and making new investments in energy independence, health care and education.

Interesting times ahead, but I believe another Democratic majority may be many years off, possibly only coming to fruition in 2012.

Reasons? Well, I don’t think the Dems are going to recapture any majority in 2006. Their message (and performance_ is still too weak. So, come 2008, I think McCain will take the Presidency, but the Republicans will continue to lose seats given “Bush weariness”. Now, McCain will be a popular President, but it still won’t change the swing back towards a more liberal philosophy in this country as we see domestic issues trump the War on Terrorism. Given that, in 2012 Dems will take back the majority, and possibly the White House when Barack Obama carries a new Democratic message of centrism into the Oval Office.

I’ve shared this scenario with some of my Dem friends and they just shake their head and sigh. They say it’s too long and the country will be ruined by then. Hardly. We’re strong and a more balanced Congress will make things a lot more balanced. But the Dems need to find themselves again, find their voice and refocus to the realities of this electorate. The outcome will be a more fiscally minded Democratic party that will counteract wedge issues with the social realities of the day.

Farfetched? Give me your thoughts.

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