Does A 3rd Party Ticket Really Have A Shot?
Specifically, one that has Bloomberg at the helm?
This author doesn’t seem to think so and he has a good point strictly from a “numbers” standpoint…
Unlike 1992 – when Bill Clinton emerged as a flawed winner in a second-rate field – Democrats today seem enthused about their choices. In all probability, Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton will win the nomination. […]
Clinton, many Democrats fear, has a low ceiling and might be hard-pressed to capture 50 percent of the vote in a two-way contest. That’s true, yet she also has a high floor. With the fervent backing of many minorities, women, yellow-dog (i.e., reliable) Democrats and “Clintonistas,” she’ll get 40 percent of the vote in a multi-candidate field.
In order to win, which is the only reason Bloomberg would run, the Republican candidate, whoever he was, could not take more than 20 percent of the vote. That’s not going to happen.
Given this, is there a plausible scenario where Bloomberg could capture the White House? Or would he simply pull more votes away from the Republican?