Specifically, if Huckabee somehow pulls off a win in Iowa, it might actually steamroll him towards victory in a lot of other states. Same with Ron Paul, although I think Iowa is out for him. His supporters should focus on pulling off an upset in New Hampshire.
Because then take South Carolina. The latest Rasmussen poll shows that Huck has gained 9 points to now come in at 12%. Ron Paul is close with a gain of 6 points and nearing double digits for 8%.
Ron Paul has decisively broken from the 1 percent/margin of error ghetto into, at the very least, spoiler status. RealClearPolitics still doesn’t include Paul in all of the averages, but 4.5 percent in Iowa, 6.8 percent in New Hampshire, and 7.3 percent in Nevada.
Over 7% in Nevada is big, because if he can make some magic happen in New Hampshire, it could have the same effect that Huck’s win had in Iowa.
So could it be a contest between Huck and Paul? Probably not, but this is the most uncertain GOP field in nearly 3 decades. Sure, there was a little excitement in ’88, but you had an VP running and he quickly tied it up after a scare from Pat Robertson.
But then you have to think about how many other candidates there are in this field. Fred Thompson, John McCain, Rudy Giuliani, Mitt Romney. Support doesn’t seem to be solidifying around any one candidate, although Romney’s support has gone up in South Carolina, while Fred Thompson’s increasingly puzzling campaign keeps rolling along.
And just in case you think these bigger dogs will stomp out the smaller dogs, think again…
In South Carolina, as in other states, the race remains quite fluid. Sixty-eight percent (68%) of Romneyâ€™s supporters say they might change their mind before voting. For the other candidates, 47% to 57% of their supporters say the same thing.
However, note to Ron Paul…
Ron Paul is viewed favorably by 35% and unfavorably by 50%.
Don’t waste your supporters passion by continuing this GOP charade. You don’t belong in the Republican party and everybody knows it.
Maybe you’ll just have to find out the hard way.