Oddly enough it seems to be going to second tier candidates…
From Fox News:
A FOX News poll of likely New Hampshire Democratic voters finds that Clinton has the support of 30 percent followed by Obama at 23 percent. Edwards comes in third with 17 percent, Richardson receives the support of 12 percent. All other candidates receive 3 percent or less.
Although Clinton has a slim advantage in the trial heat, slightly more Democratic primary voters say they would be very or somewhat satisfied if Obama (74 percent satisfied) were the partyâ€™s presidential nominee than if Clinton won (69 percent satisfied).
“We seem to be seeing a softening in the Clinton vote everywhere,” said Opinion Dynamics CEO John Gorman. “The inevitability of a month ago has been replaced by serious sound thoughts. Whatâ€™s interesting is that this seems to be not a surge to second place Obama, but reexamination of candidates even farther down the list. Edwards is closer to Obama than Obama to Clinton and Richardson closer to Edwards than Edward to Obama. An Edwards second or a Richardson third might shake things up as much as a Hillary defeat.”
Interestingly enough a recent Rasmussen Reports’s poll shows the same trend:
In New Hampshire, home to the first-in-the-nation Presidential Primary, Hillary Clintonâ€™s lead over Barack Obama is now measured in single digits.
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone poll of the stateâ€™s Likely Primary Voters shows Clinton with 33% of the vote while Obama attracts 26%. John Edwards is the top choice for 15% while Bill Richardson earns 9% of the vote. Joe Biden and Dennis Kucinich are each preferred by 4%.
So on the off chance that the margin of error goes in Obama’s favor that puts him within 1% of Clinton. Given the topsy turvy history of New Hampshire’s primaries I’d be sweating if I were Clinton. Because if Obama pulls 1st in either Iowa or New Hampshire he’ll dispel fears about his electability in South Carolina making SC a very tight race for Clinton given Edwards home field advantage. So much for Clinton’s inevitability. Looks like she’ll have to fight to the finish.