Makes sense. It’s one of the most Libertarian states out there. Very fiscally conservative, pro gun, anti war. So if anybody can pull an upset there, it would be an insurgent campaign like Paul’s. And I have a feeling his grassroot support is going to be highly concentrated in that area anyway. In fact, I know for a fact a friend oh mine is going to go to New Hampshire and volunteer that week.

Here’s more from Wash Post:

The campaign does control one key area: mass-media purchases. Last month, it bought $1.1 million worth of television advertising time in New Hampshire for the remainder of the campaign, as well as about $430,000 worth of radio time in the state, said Jesse Benton, a national campaign spokesman. There are three television ads now in circulation — one on spending, one on civil liberties and one on the campaign’s momentum — with two more in the works.

The campaign’s other major investment has been in direct mail. Benton and Chicoine declined to say how much the campaign has spent on mailings, but supporters proudly report receiving multiple pieces in their mailboxes and point to the high quality of the work, including a sleek 12-page, 8-by-11-inch brochure that supporters say went to every Republican in the state.

But the campaign still has plenty of money to spend in the final weeks in New Hampshire. Benton said it has to leave enough to compete in South Carolina and Nevada afterward, and it can buy only so much more television time here because most has already been reserved by other campaigns. But it is planning to add a couple of staff members in New Hampshire, and “if there’s more radio that needs to be bought, it will be bought,” he said.

Does he really think he can compete in South Carolina? Seems more like a social conservative, pro-war state to me. Nevada, however, looks like a good shot for Paul. They’re very much in the fiscal conservative, pro-freedom mindset.

But first, New Hampshire. And as the WSJ points out, Paul’s campaign doesn’t seem to have a very clear strategy to win, especially since they’re counting on those historically “unreliable first time voters”:

Many supporters here in Manchester and in Salem, where Mr. Paul appeared at a town hall meeting, insist their candidate can win. But the strategy is foggy: Even Mr. Paul can’t explain it, and he’s uncertain of the outcome. “I have no idea,” he said in an interview, when asked to gauge his chances for the nomination.

Many of his supporters, while vocal and enthusiastic, are from other states and can’t vote in the Jan. 8 primary. Staten Island, New York’s Lou Barrett, 56 years old and dressed as Santa Claus, said he came to New Hampshire to get other people here to vote for Mr. Paul. Mr. Barrett isn’t a registered Republican in New York, either, and thus can’t vote for Mr. Paul in his home state’s Feb. 5 closed primary. Still, he says, “We’re winning the hearts and minds.” Mr. Barrett said he hopes the $123 Santa costume will leave voters with a positive feeling about Mr. Paul.

Jeff Nelson, president of Thomas More College in Merrimack, N.H., said Mr. Paul’s strength is likely to come from first-time voters, making it more difficult to gauge his effect on the primary. “I think he’s attracting voters that otherwise wouldn’t participate,” he said. “I’ve been around the [Mitt] Romney campaign, the [Rudy] Giuliani and the [Sen. John] McCain people, and there’s no one there that’s attracted to Ron Paul.”

Dean was banking on first time voters too in ’04, but they didn’t turn out. However, that was in Iowa, so New Hampshire could be different. It’s always been a state where spoilers do well, and it catapulted Bill Clinton into the lead in ’92, even though he got second place. Will it do the same for Paul?

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