Iowa. New Hampshire. South Carolina. Tied.
Hillary and Barack are neck and neck, with Edwards pulling in the rear.
With just slightly more than three weeks until the first nominating contest, three new MSNBC/McClatchy/Mason-Dixon polls show that the Democratic contest isnâ€™t just a dead heat in Iowa — itâ€™s also tied in New Hampshire and South Carolina. In Iowa, Clinton has the lead over Obama, 27%-25% (although thatâ€™s within the pollâ€™s 5% margin of error), while Edwards comes in third at 21%. In New Hampshire, itâ€™s Clinton 30%, Obama 27%, and Edwards 10%. And in South Carolina, itâ€™s Clinton 28%, Obama 25%, and Edwards 18%.
But could Edwards still come out with a shock win in Iowa and derail the whole thing if his ground team is as good as reported? Possible. His favorables in Iowa are the highest among all three candidates, with only the not-so-silent candidate, Bill Clinton, garnering higher lovemarks from caucus-going Dems.
What this all boils down to is Hillary has to do something or risk falling further and further behind. She’s becoming the Howard Dean of 2008, and I think she knows it.
Even strong Hillary supporters acknowledge the electorate’s deep-seated concerns. “She is walking a fine tightrope now, because she is such a divisive personality,” says Lynda Connelly, a thoughtful 58-year-old Red Cross manager. She plans to vote for Clinton while fearing that, if elected, “the right- wing noise machine is going to do everything it can to derail her.”
This isn’t an anti-Hillary crowd. She gets high marks for her experience, intelligence and toughness; these qualities, they suspect, are what voters demand.
Their hopes and dreams, though, are with Obama, 46. If he can dispel misgivings about his electability or experience, the formidable Clinton forces may be powerless.
Dems are ready for change. Hillary ain’t it. She has to quickly reposition herself as a clear change from Bush and the politics of division, otherwise I think she’s toast.
Will she do it? Well, never underestimate a Clinton.
Looks like she’s trying…
She talks a lot about “new beginnings.” I guess that line tested well.
And while she does mentions change, this doesn’t really feel like a change ad…more like a “Change Parties” ad. Feels more like a general campaign ad ultimately.