Ever had deja vu? That feeling that you’ve experience something that happened before? Well, I’ve had this feeling for the past several months, and while the two situations aren’t exactly the same they’re close enough to spook me nonetheless.
And sadly, the following blog post nails the problem with what this deja vu is all about: the reality of online support transitioning into the real world.
Paul is on a roll, up in some polls, down significantly in others, which Paul people don’t care anything about because they say they don’t believe in polls because nobody’s going to tell them how to vote, even though polls aren’t orders for anybody, they only reveal how a few hundred people say they’re going to vote at that moment in time.
Because everybody Ron Paul supporters say they talk to either already are or immediately become Ron Paul supporters, they believe the Ron Paul Revolution will sweep the country sometime shortly into the New Year, starting perhaps in New Hampshire where they have so many yard signs and the license plates say “Live Free or Die.” Also, the new Ron Paul blimp is flying around there.
Yeah, yeah, polls don’t matter, but do know that we had the cell phone argument too in 2004. At least until Dean started leading. And then we took the polls seriously. Personally, I never bought that argument, but it definitely made the rounds on the blogs and got into the media, as it has with Ron Paul.
I’m not kidding. We were saying the EXACT same things. I told you all to study the Dean campaign, but I doubt any of you did. It takes more than just believing folks, and from everything I’ve read Paul doesn’t have the true ground game to get out the vote.
But sure, this time will be different. Because of what exactly? His money? Dean had more. His online support? Dean had more. The blimp? Sorry, but even though it’s a nifty marketing tactic does anybody really think a blimp is going to convince GOP voters to turn out en masse for Paul? Because that’s what they need to do. He needs to be at the top of the heap. Does anybody really think that’s going to happen? Realistically? Or are you all just wishing it will happen?
Plus, there’s no way that his Meet The Press appearance helped him with GOP voters. Not a chance. His message is not appealing to the large majority of that audience and whether you like it or not the hardcore GOPers are the ones who come out on election days. I have no doubt he’ll pull some independents into the fray, but not nearly enough to win anything of importance.
So is it all gloom and doom? Well, no. Because I think a swift quick in the butt from the primaries will quickly convince Paul that he needs to decide whether or not a 3rd party run is something he wants to do. If so, he’ll have a great head start and enough people in his Meetup groups to mobilize in nearly every state and get him on the ballot. But if not, well, then online support will once again be proven impotent in the offline world.
But that’s my take on the reality of the situation.
For the folks who keep calling me names, click here.
Seriously, you don’t want to be that guy.