Hillary Disputes Des Moines Register Poll?
My question: should you really try to second guess a poll? I mean, folks, it’s a poll. It’s not like it’s a inaccurate news report on her record.
Still, Chief Strategist Mark Penn does his dead level best to make the poll null and void. After all, he’s really a numbers guy at heart so that’s what he understands.
The Des Moines Register poll adopts an unprecedented new turnout model for the caucuses, and its new poll is out of sync with the other polling done in the race.
When you look at Democrats who last time were 80% of the turnout, Hillary wins with that group by 6%, 33 to 27 for Obama and 25 for Edwards. And as David Yepsen points out, had their pollsters used the 2004 turnout model, Hillary would lead by 29 to 27, figures in line with the other polls.
The Des Moines Register Poll this time has 40% independent voters and 5% GOP voters in the poll when past independent participation has been 15% in 2000 and 19% in 2004, and the GOP has generally made up 1% of the vote. So they are depicting an unprecedented departure from historically established turnout patterns in the caucus. Under their model, only 55% of the caucus goers would be Democrats.
I guess we’ll see on caucus night.