I think it’s actually realistic. Here’s why…
Romney and Huckabee have 1st and 2nd locked up. The order in which they’ll finish is still up in the air, but I have a feeling that Huckabee could grab 1st because people just don’t seem to like Romney that much. Still, he has spent a ton of money and I wouldn’t be surprised if his organization ultimately trumps Huckabee’s. After all, Romney is an extremely successful business man too, so he knows quite a bit about getting results.
So why Paul? Because Giuliani, Thompson and McCain have all but abandoned Iowa. Well, Thompson has been there for the past two weeks, but Paul has been there a lot longer. And 3rd place is a realistic choice for a people-powered, insurgent candidacy. That’s where Dean finished in 2004 and Paul definitely looks to follow in his footsteps. However, the outcome would be much better for Paul because he wasn’t expected to do so well. It’s all about expectations folks, and if Paul can pull off a 3rd in Iowa that would definitely boost his chances in New Hampshire too, where he has the greatest likelihood of pulling off a massive upset. Honestly, I think the story there is going to be McCain’s reemergence as the front runner in the campaign, but there’s still hope in the Granite State for Paul, especially if his Paulites can get out the vote.
The biggest question mark? Paul’s positions. Sure, Paulites are incredibly passionate about the constitution and their candidate’s strong stance on it, but that doesn’t mean GOP primary voters are. Otherwise Paul would have seen a major uptick in his support by now.
Think I’m just being anti-Paul? Well, no, because for evidence of this GOP mindset just look at how quickly Huckabee rose in the polls. That’s the GOP primary voter for you, and they’re just not in line with Paul’s core philosophies. They’re abandoned Libertarian philosophy is exchange for the “compassionate” spend!spend!spend! ways of Bush and that’s not going for this primary season. Otherwise, Huckabee would never have gained as much traction as he has.
We’ll know soon enough.