Remember when I said Ron Paul needed to finish 3rd in New Hampshire to go on, but would probably finish in 5th?
Well, one poll shows he could do just that and finish in a 3-way tie with Huckabee and Giuliani for the 3rd spot. That would be huge.
The reason? Independents love him in New Hampshire. Maybe even more than they loved him in Iowa.
McCain opens up his lead, though Romney had a good day. But the 3-day average favors McCain. He leads big among Independents, though Paul is beginning to draw some of the Indiesâ€™ support and is now polling double digits again in the North â€“ taking votes away from McCain. Paul does very well among 18-29 year olds.
Firebrand Republican Congressman Ron Paul, the only GOP presidential candidate opposing the war in Iraq, also made big gains in the closing day of the campaign before the primary election. In both the Republican and Democratic races, five percent of likely voters said they remained undecided about whom they would support.
He wound up with about 10 percent in Iowa. Will he do the same tonight? He may be a Republican candidate but he clearly appeals to independents â€” and some Democrats as well. Will he take votes from other candidates who appeal to independents, especially John McCain and Barack Obama? We shall soon find out.
And if he pulls away and actually takes 3rd all to himself, that’s a big story. It still doesn’t mean he’s going to win the nomination, but what it does mean is that he’s continuing to position himself as a new voice in American politics.
We’ll have more on this tonight.