All Hail The Super Delegates!!!
Chris Bowers does the math and it’s not pretty…
From this point, quick math shows that after Super Tuesday, only 1,428 pledged delegates will still be available. Now, here is where the problem shows up. According to current polling averages, the largest possible victory for either candidate on Super Tuesday will be Clinton 889 pledged delegates, to 799 pledged delegates for Obama. (In all likelihood, the winning margin will be lower than this, but using these numbers helps emphasize the seriousness of the situation.) As such, the largest possible pledged delegate margin Clinton can have after Super Tuesday is 937 to 862. (While it is possible Obama will lead in pledged delegates after Super Tuesday, it does not currently seem possible for Obama to have a larger lead than 75).
[…] That leaves Clinton 1,088 pledged delegates from clinching the nomination, with only 1,428 pledged delegates remaining. Thus, in order to win the nomination without the aid of super delegates, in her best-case scenario after Super Tuesday, Clinton would need to win 76.2% of all remaining pledged delegates. Given our proportional delegate system, there is simply no way that is going to happen unless Obama drops out.
Bowers suggests some solutions, but ultimately lands on the idea that the superdelegates should get behind whoever has more pledged delegates. This makes the most sense to me.
However, if it doesn’t shake out that way, do Dems really think that having party insiders pick the nominee is a good idea? I’m sure some would love to have that much power, but the voters would revolt.
In any event, see you at the convention folks!